Malaysian palm oil futures held firm above MYR 4,700 per tonne, extending their rally as gains in China’s Dalian edible oil markets and higher crude oil prices enhanced palm oil’s attractiveness for biodiesel production. Export indicators were also supportive: cargo surveyors estimated that exports for October 1–10 rose by 33.5%–37.7% from the same period in September, while festive demand from top buyer India and more active trading in China during September provided additional backing.
However, sentiment was tempered by bearish data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board. End-September inventories surged 24.5% month-on-month to a record 3.51 million tonnes, marking a sixth consecutive monthly increase. Output jumped 16.5% to 2.12 million tonnes, the highest level since August 2015, while exports fell 12.1% to 1.12 million tonnes, registering a second straight monthly decline. The combination of record-high stocks, stronger production, and softer shipments underscored persistent supply-side pressure, suggesting that although near-term demand has improved, further price gains may be constrained by underlying fundamentals.
