The US economy is projected to have grown at an annualized pace of 3.2% in Q3 2026, its fastest expansion in a year, after a 2.2% increase in Q2. This anticipated pickup would highlight the economy’s resilience in the face of elevated interest rates and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Growth is being supported by solid consumer spending, robust investment in artificial intelligence, inventory building ahead of the holiday season, and the lingering impact of tax cuts and tariff refunds to businesses.
According to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate, the expansion is expected to be driven by strong gains in personal consumption (3.8%), equipment investment (20.9%), intellectual property investment (6.6%), nonresidential structures (6.7%), and government spending (2.5%). By contrast, residential investment is projected to decline further, falling 3.6%. Net trade is also expected to drag on growth, with exports forecast to drop 2.5% while imports are projected to surge 19.5%.
