Crude oil dropped roughly 8% on Wednesday to settle near $88 a barrel, extending its decline for a third straight session and touching a one-month low. Traders increasingly appear to be pricing in an end to the Iran conflict after the White House partially linked Republicans’ midterm election losses to the war. Both Washington and Tehran have signaled a willingness to return to talks, with President Donald Trump telling reporters that Iran wants “to make a deal and that could happen.”
Trump also cited elevated gasoline prices as a factor in the Republican defeat, while Vice President JD Vance publicly blamed the war in a post on X. Qatar continues to mediate between the two sides, and Trump told the Financial Times that the United States has no immediate plans to launch strikes against Iran. At the same time, Democratic control of Congress may limit future military spending in the Middle East, fueling expectations of a near-term peace agreement.
On the supply side, fundamentals also pressured prices. A renewal of Gulf exports has pushed the availability of Middle Eastern crude above near-term demand, adding to the downward momentum in the oil market.
