The US economy is projected to have added 65,000 jobs in October 2026, up from a 29,000 increase in September, with the private sector expected to contribute 64,000 of those gains. However, seasonal adjustment factors used by the government to smooth out regular, recurring fluctuations may dampen the headline figure. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.2%.
Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month, an acceleration from the 0.1% increase recorded in September. On a year-on-year basis, though, wage growth is seen easing slightly to 2.9% from 3.0%, its lowest pace in five and a half years. Overall, the report is anticipated to indicate a relatively stable labor market, with monthly job growth of roughly 40,000 viewed as sufficient to keep up with the expansion of the working-age population.
