European natural gas prices fell 3.5% to €87.40/MWh on Friday, hitting a two‑week low and extending weekly losses to about 16%, as hopes grew for a diplomatic resolution to the Middle East conflict. Market sentiment improved after Qatar’s emir discussed de-escalation efforts with US President Donald Trump, adding to the optimism that followed the Democrats’ gains in the US midterm elections.
Even so, prices remain well above pre-war levels. Disruptions to LNG exports from the Middle East — previously responsible for roughly one-fifth of global supply — mean Europe still faces a tight market heading into winter. EU gas storage has dropped to 74%, far below the five-year seasonal norm of 90%, while Germany’s inventories are below 61%.
Colder weather and weaker wind and solar output have driven up withdrawals, and Norwegian pipeline flows remain limited by ongoing outages. At the same time, competition for LNG is set to intensify as Asian buyers step up spot purchases.
