European natural gas prices extended their decline to €80/MWh, the lowest level in a month, as hopes strengthened for a diplomatic resolution to the Middle East conflict. President Donald Trump said on Monday there was “positive momentum” toward ending the conflict and that the war was effectively over from a military standpoint.
Despite the recent pullback, European gas prices remain more than twice their pre‑conflict levels. Disruptions to LNG exports from the Gulf—previously accounting for around one‑fifth of global supply—have left the market tight heading into winter. EU gas storage has fallen below 73%, significantly under the five‑year seasonal average of 90%, while German inventories stand at under 60%.
Colder weather, combined with weak wind and solar output, has accelerated storage withdrawals, while Norwegian pipeline deliveries have remained below capacity because of unplanned outages. The constrained supply backdrop is heightening the risk of intense competition with Asian buyers for available LNG cargoes.
