FX.co ★ Five signs of forthcoming crisis in 2019

Slowdown in economic growth

Experts believe that the main factor that can contribute to the forthcoming crisis is a slowdown in the global economy. There is a rising trend, but the growth rate is steadily declining. According to analysts, this process affects the Russian, Chinese, German, and other economies.

Uncertainty about global trade reliability

Experts consider some states' uncertainty regarding the further growth of the economy and global trade to be an important sign of the forthcoming crisis. This concern leads to a cutback in orders for investment goods. At the same time, the number of newly launched investment projects has decreased drastically. Moreover, this affects the consumer sentiment: in the period ahead of a crisis, the demand for durable consumer goods is falling as well.

Imbalance in securities market

Another factor indicating a gradual movement towards the crisis is sharp fluctuations in the securities market. First of all, this applies to US government bonds. The short-term bills start to yield more than the long-term bonds, while with a normal yield curve, it's the other way around. As a rule, longer maturity bonds have a higher yield compared with shorter-term bonds due to the risks associated with time.

Tensions in global economy due to debts

It is hard to ignore such a sign of the forthcoming crisis as rising tensions in the global economy. The countries with overloads of debts usually get themselves into such a situation. It is quite difficult for many countries to pay loans back. Moreover, it takes years.

Trade imbalance

According to experts, one of the key factors contributing to the crisis is trade imbalance between countries. Some analysts see the spreading globalization as the cause of these disputes. One clear example of trade imbalance is a prolonged economic struggle between the United States and China. Such conflicts are to be blamed for an imbalance in global trade, experts warn.