FX.co ★ 5 factors to shape oil market in 2020

Debts of US shale companies

2020 may turn out to be an unmitigated disaster for the US shale companies. Over the past few years, the shale corporations have been actively developing thanks to cheap loans. Nevertheless, sooner or later the moment to pay off the debts would come. And it did. However, the companies do not have extra funds to cover the debt. Overall, the shale companies need to repay about $41 billion to their creditors. Those who cannot do it will become bankrupts. In its turn, it may lead to a wave of defaults. Since 2015, about 200 shale companies in the United States have declared bankruptcy. Thus, presently, many companies are looking for funds to pay debts but it is not easy to find new lenders.

Expansion of electric vehicle market

Experts believe that in 2020 the electric car market will take a step forward. This innovative type of car is getting more and more popular and in some countries, electric cars are successfully replacing diesel cars. Environmentally friendly cars are slowly but surely conquering the world market. According to preliminary estimates, the number of available electric vehicle models may increase to 175 in 2020. Production and sales of electric vehicles will grow. Experts reckon that in the nearest future innovative cars will take the lion's share of the market.

Climatic change

Nowadays, the climate is changing rapidly. In 2020, these tendencies will only deepen. Rising global temperatures and more frequent natural disasters will put significant pressure on the oil and gas industry. A number of leading European companies are trying to prevent the negative effects of climate change. For example, at the end of 2019, the European Investment Bank stopped financing oil, gas and coal production, and Goldman Sachs reduced funding for coal mining and Arctic oil.

Excess supply of hydrocarbons

In 2020, the demand for coal, gas (CNG), and oil in the world market may weaken due to their oversupply. Even OPEC+ countermeasures did not make a change. Excess production of CNG is recorded in the US. The global natural gas market is also full of such resources. Spot prices for natural gas continue to fall. That is why analysts predict the total reduction of deliveries. Besides, renewable energy sources are stepping on the toes of traditional fossil fuel sources. Analysts assume that soon renewable sources of energy will fully replace the old ones.

Rise in geopolitical risks

The oil market can be hardly imagined without geopolitical risks. The military conflict in the Middle East and its effect on the oil market is a striking example of their coexistence. The confrontation triggered sharp fluctuations in oil prices. In 2020, in addition to the dispute between the US and Iran, the oil market will be affected by the civil war in Libya and the fragile peace in Venezuela. The new year has just started. So, who knows what pleasant and not so pleasant surprises it will bring for the market.