FX.co ★ Three biggest risks to emerging markets in 2022

Fed’s tighter monetary policy

Closer to the end of 2021, the US Fed admitted that the country’s inflation had spiraled out of control and decided to alter its monetary policy. In 2022, the regulator is planning to raise the key interest rate three times and withdraw from all the stimulus programs. Analysts suppose that such measures may have a negative impact on emerging markets. Experts at The Economist think that tightening of the US monetary policy may lead to a huge current account deficit and a slump in currency reserves of developing countries. In addition, an extremely high inflation rate may also curb the countries’ development. By the moment, most regions, including Argentina, have already faced such problems. Thus, Argentina’s inflation rate has exceeded 50%, whereas the economic crisis is becoming graver. Meanwhile, in Turkey, the national currency has already nosedived by 45% against the US dollar, thus leading to a tumble in salaries and pensions. As a result, the purchasing power of citizens has become extremely low.

Slowdown in China’s economic growth

A slowdown in China’s economic growth may pose a significant risk to emerging markets. The fact is that any economic drop in China has an immediate effect on the global economy. Thus, exporters from all over the world are experiencing problems with the sale and supply of goods. Notably, China is the world’s largest consumer of aluminum, coal, cotton, and soybeans as well as it is the leading importer of some goods. Most of China’s biggest exporters, for example, Vietnam, are the most important links in production supply chains. Such countries will be the first to suffer from slower economic growth in China. The poorest exporters of commodities, which support the construction boom in China, are likely to deal with the most severe blow. The Fed’s intention to raise the key rates and economic slump in China are the most unfavorable combination of factors for emerging markets. In 2022, the Chinese economy may slacken more than 5 years ago. If the predictions come true, China’s GDP will slide to the lowest level last seen in 1990.

New coronavirus variants

Emerging countries suffer more from new virus strains than developed economies. They do not have enough resources to cope with biological threats amid widespread poverty. At the moment, the new Omicron strain is a burning issue in such countries. However, the virus is likely to mutate again as it is constantly developing and adapting to people and various conditions. Scientists from all over the world are conducting research to determine the level of severity of the new strain. However, developing countries are mainly focused on economic and physical survival. A low vaccination rate is the key problem in poor countries. Against this background, the spread of the new virus strain could become a real trouble for emerging economies. In addition, budgets of the poorest countries will not allow them to take tougher measures to combat the virus. Notably, the existing vaccines will hardly protect people from Omicron.