Analysis of EUR/USD Price Behavior Today, we are analyzing the price behavior of the EUR/USD currency pair, particularly focusing on a crucial zone between 1.10299 and 1.10599. This area has been witnessing significant competition, making it critical for the euro's performance.
Vital Zone Breakdown It appears that there has been a slight breach of this vital zone. However, false breakouts are quite common in the market and should not be easily dismissed. If we witness a decisive break below this zone, I will have a bearish inclination. Nevertheless, my primary focus remains on buying positions, and I have optimistic expectations for the currency pair. The initial target for upward movement is around the 1.11799 level, with the ultimate goal being to break through to approximately 1.1399. It's important to note that while there is a potential for downward movement today, I am particularly awaiting the daily candle's consolidation before making any decisions.
Technical Analysis From a technical perspective, we have not broken out of the monthly resistance zone either yesterday or today. We have only touched the lower boundary of this zone, and so far, a technical retracement has not commenced. We continue to monitor developments and assess potential actions in the market.
Market Dynamics Naturally, the market will not remain stagnant, especially with changes occurring in U.S. interest rates. Every significant news event will influence market behavior. Initially, we will observe reactions to European events, which will likely shift focus to the U.S. by the end of the week. We may see some action during the latter part of the week.
Current Positioning and Outlook The EUR/USD pair has not met my expectations lately, although today’s daily candle may close with a slightly bearish indication. However, the pair's overall situation remains unchanged, as the downward trend persists. Recently, we have hit the next target around 1.1024, but it is crucial to note that there has not been any substantial retracement. It remains unclear whether this occurrence represents a false breakout, as the pair has not solidified below the 1.1024 level. Given the current conditions, I do not anticipate significant changes today; however, we might experience volatility with the U.S. inflation data release tomorrow. These circumstances are challenging, but if the breakout at 1.1024 proves to be false, I will consider moving back into buying positions.
