FX.co ★ XAU/USD, GOLD

I analyzed the gold market and observed that we untimely reached the XAU/USD 3307–3310 buy zone just before the weekend, when I personally had no intention of entering fresh long positions. I believe this weakens the effectiveness of the level as a real-time signal and leaves it more useful as a statistical marker rather than a profit-driven opportunity. I also noticed that despite staying out of short trades, the first corrective target for the decline in gold was successfully hit, and I must acknowledge that sellers were rewarded for their decision. I now see a fresh resistance level forming near 3357, which I will monitor closely, but I will only consider selling from that area if I observe a clear price reaction. When I opened the daily chart, I saw that gold remains inside a broadening ascending price channel, and I noticed how strongly the market continues to trend within the middle portion of this bullish structure. From the current level of 3311, I anticipate renewed growth, and I have set a target at 3450 for the coming trading week. If I open a long position from 3311, I expect a potential profit of about 140 points, and in my longer-term trading perspective, I’m watching the 3500 round figure for a possible breakout and continuation of the bullish trend.

When I turned to the four-hour chart, I clearly saw that gold had broken the upper boundary of the prior downward channel at 3300, which I interpret as a strong bullish signal. I remember how gold surged to 3400 afterward, only to be firmly rejected there, which confirms the significance of that level as resistance. I am now watching how the price is testing the broken channel line from above, and I’m expecting a rebound northward after this test is completed. In the medium term, I expect that gold may bounce from the 3300 round level again—an area gold tends to respect—and move aggressively toward 3500. Despite Friday’s nonfarm payrolls not creating a dramatic market shift, I think gold was one of the most reactive instruments, especially on the H1 timeframe. I noticed a zigzag formation unfolding to the downside before the news release, which required a break below the 3343–3332 support zone for completion. I was surprised by how smoothly gold reached and then broke through this zone after the data. I see that the Fib expansion target at 161.8% sits at 3298, and I believe this is a key level for Monday. I’m not planning to sell, but if gold tests 3298, I’ll be very interested in buying, though I’ll still wait for a confirming signal before entering a position.