CHFJPY Analysis The daily chart of CHF/JPY clearly shows an uptrend within a broad sideways range. The price has already broken through a key resistance level near the monthly high. A notable feature on the chart is the long-term downtrend line that began on May 22, 2024, at 179.60. This line previously blocked the uptrend and continued to do so until late 2024. However, the break of this line in April 2025 marked a significant change in market sentiment and initiated a new upward momentum. CHF/JPY broke through the downtrend resistance level at 171.00 around April 16, 2025, and regained momentum after reaching a high of 176.50 in early May 2025. This breakout confirmed the breakout of the previous downtrend and signaled a reversal. Since then, the pair has been trading within a tight ascending triangle pattern with horizontal resistance at 176.50 and upside support at 172.50. This pattern, which appeared in early May and early June 2025, is a bullish continuation pattern that forms after an uptrend and usually signals its continuation. Support for this sideways pattern is found above the 173.80 and 174.40 levels. This support also held during the corrections that occurred on May 13 and 23, 2025, indicating continued bullish interest and buying. Resistance at 176.50 has held the price action for about a month. This resistance has been tested several times, notably on May 7 and 21, and most recently on June 5, 2025. Each time, it led to a daily correction, indicating the need for stronger momentum to achieve a breakout. In the medium term, the trend structure has been bullish since March 2025. The price rebounded from the intraday low at 166.80 and continued to experience highs and lows throughout the year. This rebound helped the price regain psychological support at 170.00 and enter the current sideways market zone around 176.00. The uptrend structure remains intact, with the moving averages pointing upward, and the price occasionally finding support at higher highs. A break above the long-term descending trend line is technically crucial. This would reverse the downtrend that has been ongoing since the break below the 179.60 high in May 2024. Continued sideways movement without a reversal after this break reinforces the bullish sentiment. Furthermore, the short-term ascending support line forming the bottom of the triangle pattern suggests continued buying even on a downtrend. A close above 176.50 would be a clear bullish signal. This move would attract more buyers, who would likely attack the next resistance level at 178.50 and retest the previous high at 179.60. If the market breaks above the monthly high, the uptrend could extend into uncharted territory. The triangle pattern is expected to continue breaking, with a long-term target of 181.00. A break below the current uptrend support at 174.60 would be the first sign of a downtrend. A break below this support could lead to a decline to 173.00, where the 50-day moving average converges with the previous breakout level at 172.50. If the downtrend continues below 172.50, a correction towards 170.50 and 168.80 is expected, increasing the chances of the stock returning to neutral territory. Despite these risks, momentum indicators are currently performing well overall. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above 63, indicating some strength but not overbought territory. The Stochastic indicator is showing a bullish crossover at 70, indicating potential upward momentum. The MACD remains strong, but the bar chart is starting to stabilize, reflecting the recent sideways movement. These signals suggest that prices are taking a breather before rising further. In summary, the CHF/JPY pair broke out of the long-term downtrend line at 171.00 in April 2025 and entered an uptrend. The ascending triangle currently forming just below the resistance line at 176.50 suggests that the uptrend is likely to continue, especially if it closes above this level. Support is set at 174.60 and 173.00, while resistance above 176.50 is at 178.50 and the major peak is at 179.60. The market is currently supporting the bullish scenario and expects confirmation with a breakout. The uptrend is likely to continue as long as the pair continues above 172.50.
