FX.co ★ AUD/CHF [10]

Basic Overview: The AUD/CHF pair reflects the divergence in risk perception and monetary policy between the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB). The RBA remains cautious about its monetary tightening cycle amid mixed economic indicators, but persistent inflation raises questions about the need for interest rate hikes. Meanwhile, the SNB continues to intervene in the exchange rate and maintains an accommodative monetary policy to support Swiss exports amid persistently low inflation and slowing economic growth. This divergence in fundamentals has supported the Australian dollar over the medium term. However, the strong correlation between the Australian dollar and global risk sentiment (particularly Chinese economic performance and commodity prices) has led to volatility in the pair. The recent sideways movement suggests that investors are adopting a wait-and-see approach, assessing the macroeconomic environment and technical indicators. Trend and Price Structure Overview: The Australian Dollar/Swiss Franc (AUD/CHF) pair entered a sideways trend following a sharp decline in late March 2025. During this period, the price rose from 0.5580 on March 21, 2025, to 0.5035 on April 3, 2025. This decline confirmed a strong downtrend and dropped below the previous support level. From this low, the Australian Dollar/Swiss Franc (AUD/CHF) pair attempted a rebound, but subsequently reversed course and is currently trading around 0.5338 (based on the last candle). Following this recovery, the price is currently trading sideways between 0.5280 and 0.5385, indicating an uncertain trend. This pattern suggests the formation of a symmetrical triangle or narrow channel, indicating traders' hesitation in the market. Although the pair recovered from its April lows, it struggled to break through, failing to achieve a convincing close above 0.5385, which has repeatedly contained price action since May 14, 2025. The latest daily candlestick is a small bullish candle, with the high and low just above the Ichimoku could indicator. It is followed by a narrow candle, indicating lower volatility and a tighter market structure. This candle indicates upward pressure, but it is not convincing enough, and the pair awaits a breakout. Support and Resistance: Current resistance is at 0.5385, a horizontal barrier tested several times between May 13 and June 6, 2025. A break and close above this level could lead to a rise towards the next resistance level at 0.5460, the support level prior to the March collapse. Furthermore, in a bullish scenario, targets would be 0.5540 and 0.5580. On the other hand, the first support is located at the lower end of the current range at 0.5280. A break of this level could lead the price to 0.5190, a minor support level during the price rally in mid-April 2025. Further selling pressure could lead the price to 0.5035, the low recorded after the April 3, 2025 crash. This level remains an important long-term support level. Ichimoku could and Moving Averages: The Ichimoku could indicates a transition period. Currently, the price is trading above the Kumo Cloud, indicating an upward breakout if volume and momentum are maintained. However, the flatness of the baseline and trunk lines indicate uncertainty and the lack of a clear trend at the moment. The Zikou range is related to previous price movements, indicating a lack of trend confirmation. The upcoming cloud is flat and weak in structure, indicating a gradual upward trend. This stagnation reinforces the notion that the market is trading sideways and awaiting a decisive move to either continue the upward correction or return to the previous downtrend. The moving averages (especially the 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day EMAs) are converging, confirming the possibility of a sideways move and accumulating energy before a breakout. If the price can clearly break above 0.5385, a bullish crossover could occur, strengthening the trend direction. Momentum Indicators: The Relative Strength Index (RSI-14) is neutral at 52.49. Since mid-May, the RSI has been trading between 45 and 55, reflecting the sideways trend of the opposing currency pair. The indicator is neither overbought nor oversold, showing no extreme signals, and has been following an intermittent pattern. The MACD histogram (12, 26, 9) is slightly flat and negative, indicating slight divergence and weak momentum. The MACD line is just below the signal line, showing weak divergence. However, weak momentum means weak signal strength, confirming the assumption of market uncertainty and low volatility. Candlestick Formation and Market Sentiment: Recently, many candlesticks have remained in a narrow range, with wicks at both ends. This suggests that the market is balanced and lacks the strength to move up or down. Recent candlesticks are slightly overbought, but not strong enough to signal a possible breakout. Instead, it suggests that the attempt to break above 0.5385 has failed and the price remains in its current range. As for market sentiment, optimists are trying to continue the recovery in the price range that has been steadily rising since the April low at 0.5035. Meanwhile, pessimists are actively defending the resistance level near 0.5385. The market is predicting a significant breakout depending on the evolution of fundamentals and risk appetite. Conclusion: The AUD/CHF pair is in a sideways consolidation phase with a neutral to slightly bullish bias following the sharp decline in late March 2025. The price is currently fluctuating between 0.5280 and 0.5385, lacking momentum and expecting directional momentum. A break above 0.5385 could see the uptrend continue to 0.5460 and beyond. Conversely, a break above 0.5280 would signal renewed bearish pressure with targets around 0.5190 and 0.5035. While technical indicators and the Ichimoku could support the current sideways trend, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD) indicate some uncertainty. Traders should monitor future key indicators such as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy signal and the Swiss National Bank statement and hold their positions in anticipation of a trend reversal until the price reaches a long-term close above the current range.