FX.co ★ AUD/USD

AUDUSD H4 Forecast The AUD/USD pair is gradually changing its trend structure and moving from a long-term bear market to a strong uptrend. The price is currently trading in a clear uptrend channel, which clearly indicates the beginning of an uptrend with lower highs and lower lows. This change in market structure is confirmed by the breakout and retest of the previous horizontal resistance line, which suggests a potential bottom and strong bullish momentum. The AUD/USD pair has been trading sideways in a broad downtrend in recent months, as evidenced by the main downtrend line connecting the highs near 0.69. This steady downtrend was followed by higher lows and higher highs. However, the situation changed when the AUD/USD pair began to stabilize in early 2025, eventually bottoming in the 0.62-0.63 range. This accumulation phase eventually led to an impulsive uptrend, breaking the current major support level at 0.6370. This breakout marked the first structural break in the downtrend, paving the way for a new uptrend. The AUD/USD pair is currently trading in an ascending channel, with the lower boundary providing dynamic support and the upper boundary limiting further gains. Recent bullish volatility has seen the AUD/USD pair test the 0.6490–0.6500 area, which is almost identical to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the October 2024 high to the March 2025 low. This 61.8% retracement level is particularly important in technical analysis, as it often acts as a strong resistance zone, encouraging profit-taking and fresh sell orders. If price breaks this area, supported by strong bullish momentum and sufficient volume, the next target could be 0.6620, where the previous structure is located. Conversely, the immediate support level is the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level around 0.6430. This level has already been broken, but it will provide initial protection for buyers in the event of a short-term decline. Below this level, the lower trendline of the ascending channel, which coincides with the 0.6380 level, becomes a more significant support line. A break of this level could lead to a break of the bullish structure and potentially trigger a correction towards 0.6310, which corresponds to the 38.2% retracement level. This multi-layered support structure allows for some flexibility in the trend, with each level representing a buying opportunity consistent with the current uptrend. After moving sideways within a tight box pattern for the past two months, price has stabilized, and the bullish break suggests that buying momentum is strengthening. This breakout from the box pattern confirms the validity of the bullish continuation scenario. Moreover, the previous downtrend line that began at the peak of September 2024 has already been broken and acts as a dynamic support line, further strengthening the bullish hypothesis. A clear breakout and retest of this trendline would confirm the switch from selling momentum to buying and further strengthen the bullish structure. As long as the price remains above the 50.0% Fibonacci level and within the current boundary of the ascending channel, the uptrend is likely to continue. Price action near the 0.6500 level is crucial for the next move. If this level acts as resistance, it could trigger a retest of the lower boundary of the channel, providing an entry point for buyers. Conversely, a strong breakout could encourage further buying and trigger a strong uptrend towards the next resistance node. From a purely technical perspective, the trend has clearly turned from bearish to bullish, with a number of significant bearish and resistance levels turning into support. This also confirms that the price action is consistent with the internal structure of the ascending channel. The symmetry of the channel provides technical clarity and a systematic structure within which prices are likely to continue to move, barring a major external shock or macroeconomic event. Overall, the AUD/USD pair is showing positive technical patterns and trend structures are currently supporting the uptrend. The breakout from the previous high, the formation of a higher low, and the revival of the price channel suggest that the AUD/USD pair is in the early or mid-stages of an uptrend. As long as the price remains above the key support levels (especially 0.6380 and the ascending trend line), this trend is likely to continue. The 0.6500 area, coinciding with the 61.8% retracement, represents an immediate barrier to further upward expansion. A successful breakout would suggest a continuation of the uptrend, while a failure would suggest a sharp decline. However, as long as the price channel holds, the overall uptrend will not weaken. Therefore, trend structures will remain an important factor in assessing future movements of the AUD/USD pair.