FX.co ★ #Bitcoin chart analysis

Fundamental Analysis Bitcoin is being influenced by key macroeconomic events. Recent economic indicators in the United States, such as better-than-expected personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation and a strong labor market, have once again raised expectations that the Federal Reserve will delay raising interest rates. This has put some pressure on riskier assets, especially cryptocurrencies. However, increased institutional participation in Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and a decrease in the supply of Bitcoin on exchanges have created a long-term bullish trend. The tightening of SEC regulations has been neutral and has not significantly affected volatility. As a result, Bitcoin is trading near key historical resistance levels and maintains an overall bullish trend on the weekly chart. The latest weekly candlestick formed on last week’s bullish and long Doji candlestick, indicating a reversal of the downtrend and the resumption of buying activity. Trend Structure and Price Action Bitcoin has been trading in a clear ascending channel since hitting a low of $26,500 in October 2023. It has consistently maintained this ascending channel, making lower and lower lows. The biggest breakout occurred in February-March 2024, when the price broke above $52,000 and continued to rise until mid-March, reaching a multi-year high of $73,777. After that, the BTC/USD pair traded sideways again, forming a bullish flag pattern at the upper end of the channel. This bullish pattern began to form in April 2024 and is still intact. Its resistance is above $72,000-73,000 and support is below $59,000. Within this range, Bitcoin is hovering around the trend line, reaching lows of $59,237 and $69,237 in May and June 2025, respectively. This support has led to a strong recovery in price, which has led to consolidation, leading to the last weekly candle closing at the overhead resistance of $67,000. This candle follows the bullish concentration pattern of the previous week and forms a clear wick at the trend line and the 23.6% Fibonacci level. Ichimoku cloud and Moving Averages Analysis of the Ichimoku cloud on the weekly chart shows that the uptrend continues. The price is above the cloud, forming a bullish pattern. The light blue handle is positively aligned with the baseline, and the Chikou band is above the price and above the cloud. This pattern shows that the long-term trend is up and unchanged. Both the 50-week and 200-week moving averages are trending upwards. It is worth noting that the price has been above the 50-week moving average since October 2023. The difference between the current price and the two moving averages indicates that Bitcoin is in a strong upward trend and is unlikely to retrace to the mean at this time. Momentum and Oscillators Momentum indicators are still showing a bullish or neutral trend. The weekly RSI is below the overbought zone at 64.75 but shows enough bullish momentum to support the current price level. No bearish divergence is in sight, confirming that the trend is ongoing. The MACD histogram is gradually rising and the MACD line has crossed above the signal line. This indicates that bullish momentum has resumed after the corrective phase in April and May. The weekly MACD recently confirmed a bullish crossover, which is a key technical signal that indicates a possible continuation of the upward trend. This signal occurs when the price continues to rise above the upper boundary of the sideways wedge pattern. Key Price Levels and Fibonacci Analysis Immediate resistance is between $72,000 and $73,777, which is the 0.0% Fibonacci retracement of the March 2024 high. If the weekly close confirms a breakout of this range, it is likely that the long-term wedge pattern will break and BTC/USD will move towards the upper boundary of the ascending channel between $78,000 and $82,000 in the coming weeks. Support is located between $59,000 and $60,000, and there are several technical correlations within this range. These include lower wedge support, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, and the previous breakout. If the price breaks below $59,000 by the end of the week, the next support level is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $52,300. Further declines could trigger buying near the psychological support levels of $48,000 and $50,000, but a significant breakout is needed for this to happen. Summary Bitcoin continues to post a strong weekly rise within a long-term ascending channel structure. Gold is currently following a sideways uptrend, with recent candlestick patterns indicating breakout momentum. The continuation of the uptrend is supported by the weekly candlestick near $67,000. Momentum indicators support this assumption and the Ichimoku cloud pattern will continue the uptrend. The key resistance level of $73,000 remains a catalyst for further gains, while $59,000 and $52,300 are the levels that will reverse the decline. Traders should look for a weekly close above the “wedge” pattern to confirm the next strong wave.