FX.co ★ Natural Gas (NG)

Natural Gas 4-H Time Frame Idea For the fifth consecutive session, resistance around $3.17 to $3.19 held natural gas in consolidation on Tuesday. The market appears poised to close with its strongest daily close since late July, potentially closing above the 50-day moving average at $3.11, although setting a lower daily high and low. Resilience in the face of persistent challenges is demonstrated by holding above this level, which would be the first successful daily close through the line in almost six weeks. Now that the $3.11 to $3.19 area has been tested numerous times, its significance as a crucial resistance zone has been highlighted. It contains a long-term uptrend line that connects to the August 2024 swing bottom, which was formerly support but is currently serving as resistance, as well as the 50-day moving average. The failed recovery above this line maintains the broader negative implications from last month's breakdown unless the price produces a clear breakout. Before buyers make another significant attempt to move higher, a slight retreat seems more plausible. A breakout from a little falling wedge, a retake of the 20-day moving average, and a rise above a long-term AVWAP indicator are examples of short-term bullish indications that have emerged. These indicators imply that buyers are active, although momentum is still limited in the absence of a sustained advance past Monday's high of $3.20. The first real indication of strength that could change the short-term outlook would be a daily closure above that level. On the downside, a number of possible support levels are grouped together close to the existing range. The 20-day moving average, which is currently at $2.90, is in close proximity to the 50% retracement level at $2.91, while the long-term indicator is at about $2.96. They form an important support band together. The recent $2.62 low might be retested if there is a persistent breakdown below this level, which would shift power back to sellers. The prolonged battle at resistance reveals residual bearish weight from the broken trendline, even though natural gas exhibits signs of resilience. The upcoming meetings will be crucial. A closing below $2.90 indicates the possibility of a negative continuation, while a clean breakout over $3.20 opens the way toward higher resistance. The tug-of-war is currently taking place inside a decreasing range.