I see the USD/JPY pair entering a highly sensitive technical phase, and I believe the price action around the major moving averages is now the most important factor to monitor. I observe that the price is gradually approaching the 200-day moving average, and I note that it is even consolidating just above this level, which makes the situation even more crucial. I consider the 200-day MA to be a significant dynamic support level, and I understand that as long as the price stays above it, I can still treat the broader bullish trend as intact, even though I acknowledge that corrective pressure remains active. I also recognize that if the price breaks below this moving average with a solid H4 candle close, I would interpret it as the beginning of a potential medium-term bearish reversal. I notice that the price is moving weakly and almost indecisively between the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, and I interpret this sideways structure as a sign that neither buyers nor sellers currently hold full market control. I see that the formation of lower highs is becoming more frequent, and I believe this pattern indicates strengthening bearish pressure against the long-term support zone. I also understand that if the price continues trading below the 100-day MA, I will likely see even more pressure applied toward the 200-day MA. I view the 100-day MA as the first dynamic resistance and the 200-day MA as the final defense of the prevailing bullish structure, and I believe that whichever level gets broken first will dictate the next major leg of market direction. I conclude that the pair is in a decisive consolidation phase, and I expect a strong directional breakout once the market chooses between these two powerful moving averages.
I observe that USD/JPY has pushed downward toward the 154.88 price level today, and I believe this movement reflects the ongoing corrective structure within the broader trend. I see on the hourly chart that the pair is currently trading around the 200-period moving average (MA 200) on the H1 timeframe, positioned near 154.20, and I consider this level to be an important dynamic support area that often influences short-term market direction. I also notice that the four-hour chart (H4) presents a similar picture, where USD/JPY is still trading above the 200-period moving average, and I interpret this as evidence that the overall bullish structure has not yet been violated. I believe that maintaining price action above the MA 200 on both the H1 and H4 timeframes strengthens the argument for potential upward continuation after the ongoing correction completes. I view the current downward movement as a routine pullback rather than the beginning of a major trend reversal, and I think traders should remain patient while waiting for a clearer buying opportunity. I understand that the alignment of price behavior above the 200-day moving averages across multiple timeframes increases the probability of a bullish rebound, especially if the correction stabilizes and begins forming higher lows. I consider the 154.20–154.88 zone to be a critical technical area where buyers may begin re-entering the market, and I believe monitoring candlestick reactions around these levels is essential for identifying strong confirmation signals. I also acknowledge that deeper corrections remain possible, but as long as the pair holds above the MA 200 on the H4 chart, I maintain my bias toward continued upward movement. I conclude that the most sensible approach is to watch for a clean technical recovery after the correction, and I think traders should wait for bullish confirmation before executing buy positions, as the charts clearly provide the necessary structure to support such a strategy.
