FX.co ★ GBP/USD

I read the current structure on GBP/USD as conflicted and emotionally deceptive, because I see a technically valid buy pattern that I deliberately ignored while waiting for a cleaner break below 1.36033, and I now recognize how two missing pips at 1.36035 changed the entire psychological tone of the setup. I observe that the rebound from that exact zone keeps the original buy structure technically alive, yet I remain cautious because I feel the broader context is filled with traps rather than clarity. I note that the British pound’s powerful rally in the second half of January was not isolated strength but part of a broader US dollar weakness across majors, and I interpret that move as fundamentally assisted but technically overstretched in speed. I track the wave development and I see that the first and third waves are nearly symmetrical, which I interpret as a completed upward cycle that naturally invited distribution and fresh selling. I see that the rejection from last year’s high in 2025 acted as a logical selling zone, and I understand why price rotated sharply down toward the horizontal support at 1.3545. I recognize that the interest rate decision added momentum to that drop, but I also acknowledge that the three-wave H4 downward structure completed its objective exactly at that support, making the rebound from there structurally justified. I identify 1.3632 as the key former resistance that price has now broken and is retesting from above, and I interpret this retest not as strength but as a potential bull trap in formation. I see the broken descending tops line and the double support that failed to hold sellers, and I question whether this failure was genuine or simply preparatory liquidity collection before another push down. I observe on the hourly chart what looks like preparation for a third bearish wave and a descending triangle, and I align that with a Fibonacci 161.8% projection that supports a southern continuation.

I examine the options positioning and I conclude that the market previously showed no interest in holding price above 1.37, which I interpret as a ceiling where professional money distributed rather than accumulated. I see the price migrating precisely into the 1.3609–1.3597 support zone and extending toward 1.3550+, and I connect this movement with volume behavior inside the bearish DKZ 1/4 margin that keeps attracting participation from all sessions. I note that the H4 minimum target at 1.3603 has already been satisfied, and I project continuation toward 1.3562 as a natural next objective. I consider the deeper DKZ 3/4 zone at 1.3473–1.3447 as a magnet if momentum accelerates, especially with the weekly OI floor near 1.3475 acting as a structural reference. I recognize that a selling range around 1.3616–1.3623 is forming and will gain significance only after last week’s lows are taken out. I become more hesitant about pending buys near 1.3545 as US inflation data approaches, because I anticipate volatility that could easily strengthen the dollar again. I observe that recent labor market data contradicted expectations and reminded me how dangerous forecast-based positioning can be. I conclude that despite the presence of an attractive buy signal, I remain mentally aligned with selling opportunities, and I prefer to wait for another failed bullish attempt before committing, because I believe the side that is pushing hardest is not always the side that ultimately wins.