Hello traders, The currency pair USDCAD - W1 chart. The wave structure is currently neutral, even though the last downward wave renewed the previous low. It's not possible to call it a downtrend, not even with a stretch. It can be seen how in late December of 2025, they reached such a significant and bold upward line starting from 2023. In the first half of January, we saw a quite decent price increase from this line as expected. This increase was limited by the horizontal resistance level at 1.3930, which may not be very visible here, but is easily noticeable on the daily chart. The rise stopped at this level, which was enough to profit from the bounce off the upward line. After that, in the second half of December, there was a general weakening of the US dollar against major world currencies. The price here also decreased, managing to break the upward line from which a beautiful bounce upwards was previously made. The price dropped below the low of 2025, where there were likely many buy stop orders that the price triggered. This led to a quick buyout, which was limited, and there has been no further growth yet. I believe that this push to the lows is a false breakout, and the price will be pulled back up again. Especially considering the bearish divergence observed on the CCI indicator. Taking into account the larger scale of the chart, this signal is very strong. It's strong also because there are similar moments on other assets. In particular, on the EURUSD pair, the opponent, and at the same time the locomotive on the weekly chart, there is a significant and beautiful bearish divergence on the MACD indicator. There, the price will likely gradually push downwards, while here, accordingly, it will gradually move upwards. The target for growth here can be indicated by the descending line, which can be drawn from the tops.
