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Trader Journals:::2026-02-26T10:02:57

EUR/AUD

EURAUD Daily Chart Analysis The EURAUD daily chart shows a bearish trend that has been prevailing since late October 2025. Several structural breakdowns and the pattern of lower highs have allowed the price to continue falling until late February 2026. Early on in the chart, around 20th October, the price was near the 1.7850 area after a strong rally. This level turned out to be a medium-term top because the candles from 20th October to 28th October did not make higher highs and instead exhibited long upper shadows, indicating selling pressure around resistance. The price tried to find some support from 29th October to 6th November, and after a small pullback, it managed to make a new high of 1.7800. This high was lower than the October top, and at the same time, it was very close to the trend line created by the declining moving averages. On 7th November, the sellers took over again, and the price was pushed down below 1.7700. This failure to continue the uptrend marks the beginning of a bearish structure that is characterized by momentum going strongly downward. The deterioration picked up speed in the period between 8th and 21st November. At that time, EURAUD slid from a level of 1.7700 to less than 1.7500. On 21st November, the price showed a brief consolidation and a corrective rebound attempt. The rebound hit its highest point around 1.7750 on 25th November, thus indicating the formation of a lower high. Besides, this level corresponded with the dynamic resistance from the downward, sloping trendline and thus the bears gained strong control. Between 26th November and 9th December, the currency pair kept moving down. The price fell below the 1.7500 support level, and by 9th December, it was at approximately 1.7400. With this movement, the downtrend was confirmed by the establishment of a lower low. Throughout this period, most of the candles were bearish, and the retracement was short, which is indicative of buyers being weak. There was a quick counter, trend movement oscillating between 10th and 17th December. Starting from a level close to 1.7400, the price went up to 1.7700. On 17th December, EURAUD registered a significantly lower high near 1.7720, and that was in line with the falling averages as well as the descending trendline. This spot turned out to be an important point of decision, and the sellers reacted very strongly to it. The most impulsive bearish leg started after 18th December. The price went down drastically from 18th December to 6th January 2026, decreasing from a high of almost 1.7700 to a low of 1.7350. This fall led to the price tearing through a number of minor supports, and thus the market changed its direction to a steeper bearish channel. On 6th January, the price stopped for a little while, making a small consolidation near 1.7350. However, no significant bullish pattern was formed. Over the period from 7th January to 14th January, the price tried to make another corrective bounce, and it got to around 1.7450. The bounce came to a halt at the retracement level of 38.2% of the previous downswing according to the Fibonacci tool, and it did not result in continuous buying. On 14th January, the price was rejected by a strong bearish candle at that level, hence a lower continuation was expected. From 15th January until 30th January, the EURAUD pair was severely sold. The price dropped from 1.7450 to a low of 1.6950. On 30th January, the pair showed a bearish expansion candle that was very large and broke the 1.7000 level of the psychological barrier. This tube was the highlight of the phase of deceleration in the downtrend, and the sign of strong bearish momentum was confirmed. The decline continued into February. Price was lower between 31st January and 12th February, going down roughly to 1.6700. A minor consolidation took place between 13th February and 17th February, where the price moved sideways between 1.6750 and 1.6850. The range acted more like a bear flag than a base. From 18th February to 25th February, sellers drove the price down to the new lows near 1.6570. RSI was at c. 30 levels, showing weak momentum without any strong reversal indications, whereas MACD was still very negative, thus confirming the trend continuation. On the structural aspect, a series of lower highs on 25th November, 17th December, and 14th January, along with lower lows on 9th December, 6th January, and 25th February, forms a clear bearish trend. The bearish bias will continue if the price stays below the descending trendline and the resistance zone of 1.6900-1.7000, and the downside risks will keep being dominant in spite of short-term oversold conditions.
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