FX.co ★ #Bitcoin chart analysis

I am currently viewing the structure on Bitcoin as technically fragile, even though price is attempting to stabilize after the recent sharp decline from the 71,578 resistance zone. I am interpreting the bounce from the 64,300–65,000 region as a corrective move rather than a confirmed reversal, because I still see lower highs forming on the H4 chart and I still see bearish pressure dominating momentum. I am focusing on 66,000–66,500 as a missed distribution area that previously aligned with resistance, and I am now treating any short-term rallies toward 68,000 or even 71,578 as potential selling opportunities rather than breakout signals. I am watching 64,200 closely because I believe a decisive breakdown below that level could accelerate price toward 62,000 and then 60,000, where I expect liquidity to be targeted. I am anticipating that the 60,000 level will not only be retested but possibly broken, with extended downside risk toward 55,000 or even 50,000 if momentum expands. I am, however, aware that the 57,000–60,000 range likely contains a heavy concentration of resting long positions, and I am expecting volatility spikes and sharp rebounds from that zone before any sustainable continuation lower.

I am also analyzing the broader geopolitical context and I am surprised that Bitcoin has not reacted more aggressively to the recent US and Israeli military operation against Iran, because I would normally expect heightened risk aversion to trigger stronger liquidation across crypto markets. I am considering the possibility that market participants are waiting for traditional forex liquidity to return before committing to directional moves, and I am therefore cautious about assuming that the current corrective rally signals strength. I am evaluating the descending daily channel and I am projecting its lower boundary near 62,000 as the first major bearish objective, followed by the prior local low around 60,000. I am prepared for a scenario where escalation involving global powers such as Russia or China could intensify macro uncertainty and amplify downside volatility across digital assets. I am nevertheless acknowledging that without fresh negative catalysts, sustained continuation toward 40,000 appears less probable in the immediate term, and I am therefore balancing short-term bearish bias with readiness to pivot long if I see strong reversal confirmation near major support.