FX.co ★ #Bitcoin chart analysis

The Bitcoin appears increasingly fragile, even as the asset attempts to establish a foothold following its sharp rejection from the $71,900 resistance zone. While some market participants interpret the recent bounce in the $64,500–$65,000 range as a sign of stability, a deeper look at the daily chart reveals a persistent pattern of lower highs, suggesting that this move is more of a corrective relief rally than a true trend reversal. Bearish momentum continues to exert significant pressure, with the $66,000–$66,500 area—a level that previously lacked a clear distribution pattern—now acting as a pivotal hurdle for bulls. Under these conditions, short-term spikes toward $68,000 or a retest of the $71,578 peak should arguably be viewed as strategic selling opportunities rather than breakout confirmations. The $64,200 level remains the line in the sand; a decisive close below this mark would likely trigger an accelerated slide toward the $62,000 support, potentially exposing the psychological $60,000 floor where massive liquidity is concentrated. Given the current trajectory, a retest of $60,000 seems inevitable, and if bearish momentum builds, we cannot rule out a deeper capitulation toward $55,000 or even $50,000. However, the $57,000–$60,000 zone is expected to be fiercely defended by a high density of long positions, likely resulting in a sharp, volatile "dead cat bounce" before any sustained long-term decline. The broader geopolitical landscape adds a layer of complexity that the crypto market is still struggling to price in. Surprisingly, Bitcoin’s reaction to the unprecedented US-Israeli "Operation Epic Fury"—which resulted in the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei—has been relatively muted compared to the magnitude of the event. While a nearly 7% drop to the $63,000 level was recorded over the weekend, the asset hasnt yet seen the full-scale "black swan" sell-off typical of extreme risk-aversion phases. This suggest that many investors are waiting for the full return of liquidity to traditional forex and equity markets before committing to a directional bias. Furthermore, the daily descending channel remains the primary guide for price action, with the lower trendline near $62,000 serving as the first major target for bears. While escalating tensions with global powers like Russia or China could certainly exacerbate macroeconomic uncertainty and fuel downward volatility, the probability of Bitcoin plunging to $40,000 in the immediate future remains low barring a systemic financial collapse. For now, the most prudent strategy involves balancing a short-term bearish bias with a readiness to pivot should a strong reversal signal emerge near the $60,000 support. The market is currently in a "wait-and-see" mode, and until a clear structural breakout occurs, capital preservation through disciplined position sizing should remain the top priority for any trader navigating these turbulent waters.