FX.co ★ XAU/USD, GOLD

GOLD Timeframe H4 : On the Gold chart with a 4-hour timeframe, the market structure still reflects a transitional phase following the strong bearish pressure in mid-March. This sharp decline caused the price to break below the 100-day moving average (blue line) and 200-day moving average (red line), which previously served as dynamic support areas. This marked a shift in the medium-term bias from bullish to bearish, at least for that period. Currently, the price appears to be beginning to move in a recovery phase, forming a series of higher lows since its low point around 4220.89. This rise brought the price back closer to the 100-day moving average (MA), even breaking through it, but remains stuck below the 200-day moving average (MA), which is trending downward. The 100-day moving average (MA) position below the 200-day moving average indicates that the intermediate trend has not yet fully reversed to bullish, as a golden cross has not yet occurred. Instead, a death cross was observed, reinforcing the downward pressure. In terms of horizontal support and resistance, several key levels are key to price movement. The area around 4657.60 serves as the closest, solid support, as evidenced by the price's several bounces from this zone. As long as the price can hold above this level, the potential for further upside remains open. Below, the 4528.57 and 4400.20 areas provide further support, reflecting strong demand zones, especially if a deeper correction occurs.

On the upside, the nearest resistance is around 4859.41, which is also close to the 200-day moving average (MA). This is a crucial area as it is the intersection of static and dynamic resistance. Rejection in this zone indicates that sellers are still in control. If the price can break through and close strongly above 4859.41, the opportunity for further upside to the next resistance at 5049.08 to 5239.88 increases. However, as long as the price remains stuck below this area, the potential for consolidation or even a pullback remains a concern. Recent price movements have shown a sideways trend with decreasing volatility, which often marks an accumulation phase before the next major move. The interaction of price with the 100-day moving average (MA) is currently an important indicator; if the 100-day moving average (MA) is able to hold as dynamic support, the short-term bias is likely bullish. Conversely, if the price falls back below the 100-day moving average (MA), the current upward trend could fail, opening up room for a decline back to the previous support area. Overall, gold remains in a directional determination phase. A breakout above the 200-day moving average (MA) and resistance at 4859 would be early confirmation of a bullish trend reversal, while failure to break through these areas could prolong the consolidation phase or even renew bearish pressure.