FX.co ★ GBP/USD

GBP/USD Timeframe H4: On the H4 chart of the GBP/USD currency pair, the previous trend structure was dominated by fairly consistent bearish pressure from mid-February to the end of March. This is reflected in the price position below the 100-day moving average (MA) (blue line) and 200-day moving average (MA) (red line) for a relatively long period. Furthermore, the downward slope of both moving averages reinforces the indication that the intermediate trend is in a downtrend. However, the dynamics began to change in early April. The price formed a higher low pattern after touching the area around 1.3158, which was then followed by a fairly impulsive upward push. This rise led the price to break through the 100-day moving average (MA), which had previously served as dynamic resistance. This breakout was an early signal that selling pressure was weakening, and buyers were beginning to take control in the short term. However, the price is currently facing the 200-day moving average (MA) above it, so the bullish phase has not yet been fully confirmed structurally. From a horizontal support and resistance perspective, the 1.3380 area is a crucial level. It previously served as resistance, but has now been broken and has the potential to transform into new support. As long as the price remains above this zone, the short-term bias remains bullish. Below, the 1.3283 and 1.3209 areas provide continued support, reflecting strong demand, especially if a deeper correction occurs. A decline to these areas without significant buying could reopen the potential for a continuation of the bearish trend.

Meanwhile, the nearest resistance lies between 1.3482 and 1.3575. This area is crucial because it represents a supply zone that previously triggered price rejection. Furthermore, the relatively flat to slightly declining 200-day moving average (MA) around this area reinforces technical resistance. If the price breaks through and maintains above 1.3482, the opportunity for continued gains towards 1.3575 or even 1.3650 will increase. Conversely, failure to break through this area could trigger a pullback back to the nearest support. The interaction between the price and the 100-day moving average (MA) and the 200-day moving average (MA) is currently a key factor in determining the next direction. The 100-day moving average (MA) starting to reverse upwards indicates a shift in short-term momentum to bullish. However, as long as the 100-day moving average (MA) remains below the 200-day moving average (MA), the intermediate trend hasn't fully reversed. The ideal scenario for stronger bullish confirmation would be a golden cross, where the 100-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average. Conversely, if the price falls again and breaks through the 100-day moving average (MA), the current uptrend could potentially be just a retracement within a larger bearish trend. Overall, GBP/USD is in a transition phase from bearish to potentially bullish. Confirmation of the direction will depend largely on the price's ability to break through key resistance and maintain its position above the 200-day moving average (MA), or whether it will weaken again and resume its previous downtrend.