Good afternoon. The previous decline did break through the 1,316 support level, but it's important to note that the breakout occurred only through the candlestick's shadow, not the candle's body closing below that area. This situation still creates a significant possibility of a false breakout. The current market reaction also supports this possibility, as evidenced by the price rebounding and returning to around 1,320. In addition to support from the 1,318 horizontal support area, the price has also touched the lower Bollinger Bands, which often signals weakening selling pressure. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram continues to rise and is approaching a potential breakout of the signal line. If this confirmation occurs, the opportunity for a correction to rise remains open. However, structurally, the main market trend remains bearish, as the price is still moving below the middle Bollinger Bands and the 50-day Moving Average. Therefore, any temporary increase should be viewed as a correction rather than a trend change.
Switching to the H4 chart, buyer dominance begins to become more apparent. The MACD histogram continues to rise consistently, approaching the zero line, and is able to remain above the signal line. This indicates that buying momentum is strengthening. Furthermore, pressure from sellers has not yet been able to push the price above the low established last week. Currently, the price has even managed to move above the middle Bollinger Bands, although it still faces strong resistance in the 50-day Moving Average and upper Bollinger Bands. As long as the price remains below the 50-day Moving Average, the main trend has not yet turned bullish. However, if upward momentum is maintained, there is still a significant chance that the price will continue to strengthen towards the 1,330 area. This level is a support-turned-resistance area (SR Flip), making it a potential key zone that will determine the direction of the next movement. Based on this overall analysis, I still believe the GBP/USD trend remains generally bearish. However, the strong support area at 1,318 prevents the price from continuing its decline further. This condition indicates oversold conditions, opening the opportunity for a rebound or rebound towards the next supply area. Therefore, the most likely scenario for the time being is sideways movement in the 1,318 to 1,330 range while awaiting confirmation of the next direction. From a trading plan perspective, there are two scenarios to consider. First, look for a buy opportunity around 1,320 with a stop-loss below 1,314 and a target towards 1,330. Second, if the price manages to reach the 1,330 area, that level can be used to look for sell opportunities as it has the potential to become a strong resistance area. By waiting for the price to enter these key zones, the opportunity to achieve a better risk-reward ratio will be optimal.
