FX.co ★ CL/Crude Oil

Crude Oil (#CL) D1 Technical Analysis Market Structure, BOS & MSS: The daily chart of Crude Oil (#CL) shows a market that has passed through several major structural phases, beginning with accumulation around the 55.50–63.50 region, followed by a powerful bullish expansion and later a broad distribution-to-correction cycle. The current displayed price is around 77.09, while the latest daily candle shows an OHLC structure of approximately 78.16 / 78.74 / 76.54 / 77.09, indicating that sellers have recently responded around the 78.50 area. Earlier price action produced multiple bullish Break of Structure (BOS) events as price moved above previous swing highs and established higher highs toward the 100–110 region. The major bullish expansion accelerated after price reclaimed the 66–70 area, confirming stronger demand participation. However, after reaching the upper liquidity region, the structure gradually changed as successive lower highs developed. The later bearish Market Structure Shift (MSS) became important when price started breaking previous daily swing lows and moved below the 92–96 region. From a Smart Money Concepts perspective, this indicates that the market transitioned from an aggressive bullish environment into a corrective bearish structure. The subsequent decline toward the 55.50–60.55 area created a significant Sell Side Liquidity (SSL) event. Price is now attempting to recover from that liquidity sweep, but the current structure has not yet confirmed a complete long-term bullish reversal. A sustained daily close above 78.54 would strengthen the immediate bullish structure, while rejection beneath that level would keep the broader corrective bias active. Therefore, BOS and MSS should be monitored together rather than interpreting one isolated candle as a trend reversal. FVG, Gap & Imbalance: Several important Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) can be identified from the strong impulsive movements visible on the daily chart. The bullish expansion created an imbalance around the 65.00–68.50 area, while the broader FVG + Order Block demand zone around 66.50–70.50 represents an important region where buyers previously demonstrated strong participation. These areas are significant because impulsive price movement often leaves inefficient trading ranges that can later attract price for mitigation. The chart also shows a bearish imbalance around 100.00–104.00, created during the strong decline from the upper part of the structure. If Crude Oil eventually rallies back into this region, the FVG may act as a reaction or supply area rather than automatically becoming a bullish continuation zone. Another important Gap/FVG is visible around 84.00–86.50, which currently sits above the market and may become an intermediate upside target if buyers successfully reclaim 78.54. FVGs should therefore be treated as zones rather than exact single-price levels. A clean displacement through an imbalance can invalidate its reaction potential, while a slow retracement into it may provide a mitigation opportunity. At the present price near 77.09, the lower bullish imbalances remain below the market, whereas the 84.00–86.50 imbalance is positioned overhead. This creates a technically interesting structure in which price could first target nearby liquidity above 78.54 before attempting to fill the higher imbalance. Confirmation from candle displacement and volume would make such a move more reliable. Order Block & FVG + Order Block: The Bullish Order Block around 60.00–63.50 is one of the most important demand structures visible on the chart because it developed before the major upward expansion. Price repeatedly demonstrated acceptance around the lower levels before eventually breaking upward, suggesting that institutional demand was active in this region. The broader FVG + Order Block zone at approximately 66.50–70.50 adds another layer of confluence because it combines an inefficient price area with a prior institutional reaction zone. Such a combination can become a strong mitigation area if the market revisits it. The current price at 77.09 is above both demand regions, meaning buyers currently have structural support underneath. On the opposite side, the Bearish Order Block around 92.00–96.00 is important resistance. This zone developed after the market had already moved into a higher distribution area, and a future rally into 92–96 could attract sellers if price shows rejection. Above it, the bearish FVG between 100.00 and 104.00 provides another supply-related imbalance. I would therefore treat 92–96 as the first major bearish reaction zone and 100–104 as a higher supply/imbalance zone. A decisive daily close through 96 would weaken the bearish order-block thesis and potentially open the path toward 100–104. Conversely, rejection from 92–96 could restore downside pressure toward 78.54 and eventually the lower demand zones. Order blocks are strongest when supported by displacement, liquidity interaction and market-structure confirmation rather than being used independently. BSL & SSL Liquidity: Liquidity mapping is particularly important on this Crude Oil chart because the market has already produced substantial swings above and below major structural levels. The upper Buy Side Liquidity (BSL) region is concentrated around 116.00–123.95, representing the area above major historical highs where buy-side stops may have accumulated. Price previously approached the upper portion of the structure but failed to maintain the extreme bullish expansion, resulting in a significant reversal. On the downside, the Sell Side Liquidity (SSL) zone around 55.50–60.55 is equally important. The market moved into this region during the major decline, creating a liquidity-taking event before beginning its recovery. This suggests that a substantial amount of downside liquidity has already been interacted with. The current price around 77.09 is positioned between these major liquidity pools, which means the market is currently in a middle-range environment rather than directly at an extreme. The nearby 78.54 level is particularly important because it can function as a short-term liquidity trigger. A breakout above 78.54 could attract buy-side orders and encourage price toward 84–86.50. If price instead rejects and falls below the recent local lows, sellers may attempt another move toward the lower liquidity region. From a liquidity perspective, the market often moves from one pool to another, so the reaction around 78.54 should be carefully monitored before assuming a sustained directional move. TLL & Trend Structure: The earlier bullish phase established a visible ascending Trend Line Liquidity (TLL) structure, particularly while price was building higher lows between the lower demand area and the major spring advance. Trend-line liquidity is important because traders frequently place protective stops below obvious rising trend lines. As a result, a clean break beneath such a line can generate a liquidity sweep before either continuation or reversal. The market subsequently broke away from its earlier bullish trend structure and entered a broader corrective phase. This transition is consistent with the later MSS visible on the chart. The decline from the 100–110 region toward the 55.50–60.55 area demonstrates that the previous bullish trend was no longer controlling the market. However, the recent rebound suggests that buyers are attempting to rebuild a short-term bullish leg. The current structure around 77.09 should therefore be viewed as a potential recovery phase rather than an already-confirmed long-term uptrend. If price forms higher lows above 70.50 and then produces a clear BOS through 78.54, the bullish TLL structure could begin rebuilding. A rejection followed by a break beneath 70.50 would instead indicate that the recovery is losing momentum. Trend-line liquidity should consequently be combined with horizontal liquidity, FVGs and order blocks for higher-quality confirmation.

Supply, Demand & Key Price Levels: The most important immediate reference level is 78.54, which is currently very close to the market and can act as a short-term equilibrium or breakout trigger. The latest candle's high near 78.74 shows that buyers recently attempted to push above this area but were unable to maintain the advance into the close. This makes 78.54–78.74 an important short-term decision zone. If buyers obtain a strong daily close above it, the next potential objective is the 84.00–86.50 Gap/FVG region. A sustained move through that area could expose the 92.00–96.00 bearish Order Block, where stronger supply may emerge. Above 96, the 100.00–104.00 bearish FVG becomes the next major imbalance target, followed by the broader 109.71 resistance level shown on the chart. The extreme BSL area around 116–123.95 remains a much higher structural target rather than an immediate expectation. On the downside, failure around 78.54 could bring 70.50 into focus, followed by the 66.50–70.50 FVG + Order Block demand area. The 65.00–68.50 bullish FVG provides additional support, while 60.00–63.50 represents the stronger bullish Order Block. Finally, 55.50–60.55 is the major SSL region. This creates a clear technical roadmap: bullish continuation above 78.54 favors 84–86.50, while bearish rejection can redirect price toward 70.50 and the lower demand structures. RSI & Momentum: The RSI(14) is approximately 45.68, which provides an important momentum perspective on the daily structure. RSI below 50 generally indicates that momentum is not yet firmly controlled by buyers, although the indicator is far from the oversold extreme around 25. The recent recovery from the lower RSI region suggests that downside momentum has weakened after the major decline. However, the current reading around 45.68 means the market has not yet achieved the kind of momentum confirmation normally associated with a strong bullish continuation. A move above 50 would strengthen the argument that bullish momentum is returning, particularly if price simultaneously breaks 78.54. A move toward 60–65 would provide stronger confirmation of sustained buying pressure. Conversely, rejection around the 50–60 RSI area followed by a fall below 40 would suggest that sellers are regaining control. RSI should not be used alone to predict reversals because Crude Oil can remain overbought or oversold for extended periods during strong trends. Its greatest value here is confirmation of the price structure. If price breaks 78.54 while RSI moves above 50, the breakout would have better momentum support. If price remains below 78.54 while RSI stays under 50, the current recovery can still be interpreted as a corrective bounce within the larger structure. Volume & Institutional Participation: The volume profile also adds useful confirmation to the price structure. The chart displays Volumes around 29,033, while earlier major directional movements were accompanied by significantly larger volume spikes. The strongest volume expansion occurred around the major bullish displacement and during portions of the subsequent decline, suggesting substantial participation when the market moved through important structural areas. More recently, volume has been comparatively moderate, indicating that the recovery toward 78.54 has not yet demonstrated the same level of participation seen during the strongest historical impulses. This is important because a breakout without convincing volume can become a liquidity grab rather than a genuine structural expansion. If Crude Oil breaks above 78.54 with a noticeable increase in volume and closes strongly above the level, the probability of continuation toward 84–86.50 would improve. Conversely, a high-volume rejection near 78.54 could indicate distribution or renewed seller participation. Volume should therefore be interpreted alongside BOS, FVG mitigation and liquidity behavior. A strong displacement candle accompanied by elevated volume would provide better confirmation than a series of small candles moving gradually through resistance. The current volume condition therefore supports a cautious approach while waiting for confirmation rather than aggressively anticipating the next major trend. Overall Bias, Targets & Trading Scenario: Overall, the daily chart presents a neutral-to-cautiously bullish short-term recovery structure, but the broader market remains technically mixed because the previous major bullish trend has already experienced a significant bearish correction. The immediate battlefield is 78.54–78.74. A confirmed daily breakout above this region could establish a fresh short-term BOS and shift attention toward 84.00–86.50, where the marked Gap/FVG may provide the first meaningful reaction. If momentum remains strong, the next important objective becomes the 92.00–96.00 bearish Order Block, followed by the 100.00–104.00 bearish FVG. A stronger continuation beyond these zones could eventually retest 109.71, while the extreme BSL region around 116.00–123.95 remains the longer-term upside liquidity target. On the bearish side, rejection below 78.54 followed by a decisive break under 70.50 would weaken the recovery and expose 66.50–70.50, where the FVG + Order Block demand zone becomes important. Further weakness could target 60.00–63.50, and a complete return into 55.50–60.55 SSL would represent another major liquidity test. I would therefore wait for price action confirmation around 78.54 rather than assuming direction from the current candle alone. The combination of BOS/MSS, liquidity, FVG, Order Blocks, RSI and volume gives the clearest framework. For the present setup, 78.54 is the confirmation level, 84.00–86.50 the first upside objective, 92.00–96.00 the major supply target, and 70.50 the key downside warning level.