FX.co ★ XAU/USD, GOLD

Gold prices (XAU/USD) traded practically flat for a second consecutive session on Friday, consolidating below the $4,600 level as market participants adopted a cautious, wait-and-see stance ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s anticipated speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Following a sharp rejection earlier in the week from three-month highs near $4,700, the metal’s downside movement found solid buying interest near a key former resistance zone, holding firm above $4,590. Market volatility remained largely subdued across major asset classes, with traders delaying significant macro bets until Chair Warsh addressed the central bank's policy direction. Investors broadly anticipated that Warsh might set aside his typical preference against detailed forward guidance to offer explicit signals regarding near-term monetary policy, particularly as sticky inflation metrics sparked growing calls from within the Board of Governors for additional interest rate hikes. This monetary policy uncertainty was further reinforced by hawkish rhetoric from regional Fed officials leading into the event. On Thursday, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmidt told CNBC that inflation remains persistent and that policymakers must continue seeking ways to break through current price pressures. Echoing this firm tone later in the session, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack emphasized that it is time for the central bank to act decisively to return inflation back down toward its 2% long-term target.

Despite the near-term consolidation and hawkish central bank commentary, the broader structural outlook for precious metals remains constructively bullish from a technical chart perspective. Trading around $4,599, XAU/USD continues to preserve its primary uptrend, holding comfortably above its rising 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which currently sits near $4,525. Daily momentum indicators continue to endorse this underlying bullish bias: the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) registers at a healthy 66.48 after cooling off from previous overbought conditions, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains firmly entrenched within positive territory. Bearish momentum has so far been capped above the late-May high area around $4,590, keeping the immediate path toward the critical 200-day SMA at $4,527 firmly blocked. Should selling pressure intensify and break beneath that moving average benchmark, technical analysts point to the confluent demand zone near $4,450—marked by the August 13 swing high and August 20 low—as the next major line of defense for buyers. On the upside, immediate bullish advances face cap resistance just below the $4,700 psychological barrier, which aligns with Tuesday's high. Reclaiming this key level would clear the path for a retest of the May 12 high at $4,773, ultimately opening the door to challenge the major April peak near the $4,900 mark.