FX.co ★ XAU/USD, GOLD

Fundamental Analysis of the XAU/USD Gold is changing price near $4,180 at the start of a data-heavy week, a few dollars below the $4,200 mark it briefly recaptured earlier. Bullion is extending its recovery from a two-month low of $4,067 while the dollar pauses after retreating from an 18-month peak. What is notable is who is buying. Gold-backed ETF inflows are at a four-year high, and the People's Bank of China added 740,000 ounces in September, its 23rd straight monthly purchase. That official demand helps explain why the metal has held up even though the 10-year Treasury yield rose 53 basis points to 5.3% in September while the DXY gained about 2%. The pressure has not gone away, since futures price in a 17.7% chance of a Fed hike in October and 84.1% for December. The main event is inflation: the US CPI report for September is due on October 14, and a hot reading could strengthen rate-hike expectations and push the dollar and Treasury yields higher. Producer prices and retail sales also arrive this week. Softer oil prices and slightly lower yields are helping bullion today, but Middle East headlines can reverse that quickly . The bigger context is that gold remains well below its January record above $5,600, and buyers still need the dollar to lose momentum. 1-Hour Chart Analysis In XAU/USD , the 1-hour chart shows gold at $4,180 after a rejection at $4,215 and a slide back toward support. Price is now testing the 20 EMA near $4,172, while the 5 EMA has flattened and dipped to meet it, so the two lines are almost touching, a sign that momentum is fading and a decision is near. This is a pivotal spot: a hourly close above the 5 EMA, followed by a break of $4,200, would restore the bullish tone and aim at $4,215 and then $4,225. If gold instead closes under the 20 EMA, the next supports are $4,155 and then $4,130, the Friday low where buyers appeared. A deeper loss of $4,130 would open $4,114, where an inverted hammer candle formed earlier, and then $4,070. Because the US holiday makes today's liquidity thin, price can drift without much conviction, so wait for a candle close beyond a line before acting. A simple intraday plan is to buy a bounce from the 20 EMA with a stop under $4,150 and a target of $4,215, or to sell a failed push above $4,200 with a stop above $4,225. Keep position sizes smaller than usual ahead of Wednesday's CPI.

4-Hour Chart Analysis The 4-hour chart is more constructive than the daily picture. Price sits above a rising 20 EMA near $4,160 , the 5 EMA is above it, and the recent rebound has come from the ascending trend line that stretches from the June 2026 lows. That keeps the short-term trend gently upward while the pair works through resistance at $4,215 and $4,250. A 4-hour close above $4,250 would be a meaningful breakout, and the next target would be $4,330, which also lines up with the 50-day average near $4,338. The broader backdrop remains cautious, though, because the daily RSI is bearish and spot trades below the 100-day SMA near $4,256, the 50-day SMA near $4,338 and the 200-day SMA near $4,529. Support comes first at the 20 EMA and $4,130, then $4,070, and a 4-hour close below $4,070 would suggest that the recovery has failed, exposing the $4,000 psychological level. Swing traders may prefer to buy pullbacks toward $4,130 to $4,150 while the trendline holds, with a stop below $4,060, instead of chasing strength into $4,250. If CPI surprises on the upside, expect a quick test of the lower supports , so avoid heavy positions before the release.