FX.co ★ #Bitcoin chart analysis

Hello crypto folks! BTC/USD continues to decline, so I continue to trade from the short side. As long as Bitcoin remains below 83 200–84 000, I expect a return to 80 000. A sustained close below 80 000 opens the way to 76 500. A daily close above 84 000 cancels the scenario. Bitcoin's trend depends on capital flows into ETFs, central bank rates and the dollar exchange rate. Right now these factors are pushing the cryptocurrency down. Spot ETFs lost $261 mln in a day, the accumulated October total went negative by $276,2 mln. The average cost basis of ETF holders is about $81 722, meaning the price is sitting right on it. Above the price there is a dense supply zone from long-term holders at $84 000–85 000. Probability of a Fed rate hike -800% US CPI for September rose to 3.7%, PPI to 6.3%. No decline in inflation is foreseen, oil remains around $100. Warsch's speech on Friday supported Bitcoin; the Fed chief gave no signals on rates, and the 10-year Treasuries yield fell to 5.10%. Among the upcoming events of the week I'd note the absence of important US macro data. Moreover, the Fed goes into a "quiet period" before the meeting on October 27–28, and the ECB decides on rates on the 29th.