FX.co ★ Chicago Fed National Activity Index Edges Down

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for the United States declined to -0.03 in March 2025, down from +0.24 in February, indicating that economic growth was below the long-term average. Among the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index, two saw declines from February to March, with three categories contributing negatively during the month. Specifically, production-related indicators dropped significantly, contributing -0.09 to the CFNAI in March, compared to +0.25 in February. The category of sales, orders, and inventories reduced its contribution to -0.03 from +0.01 the previous month, while employment-related indicators slightly improved their contribution to -0.01 from -0.02 in February. In contrast, the personal consumption and housing category showed an uptick, with its contribution rising to +0.11 in March from a neutral stance in February. Additionally, the index's three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) fell to -0.01 in March, from +0.12 in February.