FX.co ★ Lumber Near Yearly Lows

Lumber futures dropped below $550 per thousand board feet, reaching their lowest point for the year. This decline is attributed to an oversupply resulting from winter restocking, paired with a 14.2% decrease in U.S. single-family housing starts, which fell to an annualized rate of 940,000 units in March. Consequently, inventories for new homes have swelled to nearly eight months' worth of supply. Although a federal mandate to increase timber production from public lands by 25% suggests some alleviation of constraints in the long run, the 90-day halt on new reciprocal tariffs has lessened the immediate need for buyers to hedge against import risks. Concurrently, the anticipation of significantly higher anti-dumping duties on Canadian lumber has led mills to withhold supply, further driving down prices. This occurs as domestic inventories grow and demand remains weak, despite the arrival of the spring building season.