FX.co ★ Hot-Rolled Steel Eases from 15-Month High

The US hot-rolled steel coil futures recently declined to $870 per tonne, down from a peak of $945—a 15-month high—reached on April 23rd. This decline reflects the adverse effects of the deteriorating macroeconomic environment, primarily driven by tariff measures instituted by President Trump. The ongoing trade tensions between the US and China have dampened the outlook for ferrous metals, compelling significant producers to slash their pricing strategies. Notably, ArcelorMittal reduced scrap prices by 20% at the end of April. Additionally, decreased natural gas prices in the European Union have led to lower smelting costs, subsequently affecting the broader category of steel scrap contracts. Despite these factors, the US's 25% tariffs on steel have underscored the reliance on domestic production capabilities, maintaining steel futures at a 22% increase year-to-date. This trend is consistent with the most recent trade reports, which indicated an 11% drop in imports of hot-rolled steel coils in March compared to the previous month, highlighting increased dependence on the constrained domestic smelting infrastructure.