The yield on Brazil’s 10-year government bond climbed above 14.3%, the highest level since April, as a cautious interest rate cut by the central bank and intensifying energy shocks in the Middle East triggered a sharp repricing along the domestic yield curve. The Copom reduced the Selic rate by a smaller-than-expected 25 basis points, to 14.75%, while explicitly withdrawing its forward guidance and underscoring a marked increase in inflation uncertainty.
This defensive shift coincided with Brent crude rising above $113 per barrel after Iranian missile strikes on energy infrastructure in Qatar and Saudi Arabia, which heightened concerns about persistent cost-push inflation. Investors are now pricing in the possibility of a pause in the monetary easing cycle in April if the maritime blockade in the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt global fuel supplies. At the same time, markets are punishing the deterioration in fiscal credibility in the wake of R$61 billion in mandatory parliamentary amendments and a still-resilient labor market.
