The yield on India’s 10-year government security hovered around 7%, halting its climb after four consecutive sessions as investors weighed increased debt supply against expectations of monetary tightening and improving liquidity. Sentiment remained cautious ahead of the government’s upcoming bond auction, in which New Delhi plans to raise billions of rupees through the sale of three-year, seven-year, and 30-year securities.
Although market expectations for interest rate hikes have risen, the Reserve Bank of India is reportedly reluctant to deploy higher borrowing costs to support the rupee, keeping bond markets volatile amid diverging views on the policy outlook. At the same time, expectations of a record surplus transfer from the RBI to the government lent support to the debt market and helped cap upward pressure on yields. Economists estimate the payout could exceed 3 trillion rupees, largely reflecting gains from the central bank’s dollar sales undertaken to stabilize the currency.
