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Trader Journals:::2025-06-08T07:33:08

XAU/USD, GOLD

Gold ends the week higher despite the pullback. RSI neutral; key support at $3,300 holds. Stronger dollar, yields weigh on gold. Gold prices (XAU/USD) concluded the week with a moderate pullback, marking a second straight daily decline on Friday. Despite this short-term weakness, gold still managed to post a weekly gain of over 1.30%, underlining its underlying bullish momentum. The recent dip was largely triggered by stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data, most notably the latest non-farm payrolls report, which revealed persistent labor market strength. This data caused traders to sharply scale back expectations for near-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, a move that typically dampens the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. At the end of Friday’s session, gold traded near $3,310 per ounce, reflecting a 0.84% intraday loss. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that unemployment remained unchanged from April, reinforcing confidence in the U.S. economic recovery. Meanwhile, investor sentiment was buoyed by news that the U.S. House of Representatives approved an increase in the federal debt ceiling, helping stock markets rebound from Thursday’s losses. However, geopolitical tensions remained a wildcard, especially following a public confrontation between President Donald Trump and Tesla CEO Elon Musk, adding a layer of uncertainty that traditionally supports safe-haven assets like gold. Adding pressure to gold prices, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rose 0.48%, bolstered by rising U.S. Treasury yields and recalibrated market bets on the Fed’s policy trajectory. A stronger dollar often weighs on gold, as it becomes more expensive for investors holding other currencies. From a technical outlook, gold remains in a consolidation phase but shows signs of maintaining its broader bullish structure. The XAU/USD pair is currently holding just above the key psychological support level of $3,300, having bounced from a four-day low of $3,315. This support zone has proven resilient during previous pullbacks, and holding above it suggests that bullish sentiment remains intact. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), however, has dipped into neutral territory, currently hovering around the 50 mark. This suggests a lack of strong directional momentum in the short-term, but not yet an overbought or oversold condition. A further decline in RSI below 45 could indicate growing bearish pressure, potentially dragging prices toward the next significant support near $3,250. If this level is broken, deeper losses could follow, with the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around $3,235 acting as a key level to watch. On the upside, immediate resistance is seen near $3,360, an area that has capped gains in recent sessions. A confirmed breakout above this zone could open the path toward $3,407 the high reached on June 5 and then further extend toward $3,450. If bullish momentum strengthens, gold could test the psychological level of $3,500, which would mark a fresh all-time high. Overall, while short-term indicators reflect caution, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive as macroeconomic and geopolitical factors continue to favor safe-haven demand.

XAU/USD, GOLD

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