FX.co ★ NZD/JPY

NZDJPY H4 Forecast The H4 timeframe for NZD/JPY shows that the long-term downtrend has been broken and is moving towards an uptrend. From late August 2024 to mid-March 2025, the pair experienced a continuous downtrend with lower highs and lower lows. This downtrend started at 92.39 and reached just above 80.30 in mid-March 2025. During this period, the downtrend line was limited by price volatility, with sellers dominating the market and facing new selling pressure on each bounce. After the March 2025 low, this pattern changed significantly. After a strong V-shaped reversal trend, which broke the resistance of the April downtrend. This breakout formed a new upward trend line supported by the moving average and sustainable highs and lows. The pair formed an upward channel, where the price continued to rise. This is supported by the uptrend and the 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages that are sloping upwards. NZD/JPY is currently trading near 87.50, which is just below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the overall downtrend that began at 92.39. This level is important because it overlaps with several previous resistance levels and is now forming strong horizontal resistance. The price has tested this area several times in recent days but has clearly failed to break it. This indicates that the bullish momentum has temporarily stalled while the market assesses whether it will continue its upward trend. The latest candlestick pattern flattens slightly below the resistance level and forms a relatively small top with a high wick. This indicates low investor confidence in the region or a potential bear market in the near future. However, the upward channel holds and the price has consistently held the support line of the downtrend line since May 2025. This shows the validity of this structure. Immediate support is at 87.00, with the lower boundary of the ascending channel meeting the support of the moving average. A sharp decline could lead to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 86.36, which was previously resistance but is now a support level. Momentum indicators are neutral to the bulls. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently near 51.06, indicating that it is neither overbought nor oversold. This neutral reading is consistent with the current sideways trend. The MACD histogram is showing a slight bullish crossover, with the signal and MACD lines above the zero line. This shows underlying bullish momentum but no clear direction. Meanwhile, the Stochastic Oscillator is showing a slight decline from the previous overbought level. This indicates that the short-term uptrend may be weakening and further gains could continue if support holds. If the pair breaks above 87.86 (exactly the 61.8% retracement level), it could move towards 89.00 and retest the next major resistance level of 90.38, which came from the October/November 2024 low. A break above this level would reach the final upside target of the previous high of 92.39 and reverse the long-term downtrend. On the other hand, failure to break above 87.86 and below the lower support level of the ascending channel could trigger a sharp correction. The next downside targets would be the 50.0% retracement level of 86.36 and the 38.2% retracement level of 85.02. A break above this level could see a reduction in the current bullish position and a return to the 23.6% retracement level of 83.68. Overall, the NZD/JPY pair continues its uptrend, with clear support and resistance levels influencing price action. The price is currently trading below a key Fibonacci resistance level and the market’s next move will depend on the reaction at 87.86. This trend will continue until the price breaks above the rising support level and the moving average of the ascending channel. A break above the resistance level will allow the uptrend to continue, while a clear break below the ascending channel will initiate a correction in the overall uptrend.