FX.co ★ CL/Crude Oil

WTI Price Forecast: Oil steadies near $63.50 with a bullish bias WTI continues to rise Tuesday, trading close to $63.50 for the third day in a row. The risk premium is maintained by supply risks resulting from new strikes on Russian refineries. With the RSI heading upward and the MACD slightly positive, technical signals turn bullish. Tuesday saw a third straight day of gains for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil as the risk premium remained intact due to supply issues resulting from new attacks on Russian refineries. WTI is currently trading at about $63.68, up almost 1.0% for the day. The recovery comes after buyers intervened last week to stop negative pressure during a successful defense of the $61.50 support base. The 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around $63.25, a dynamic ceiling that has frequently stopped upward momentum in recent sessions, continues to limit gains, though. Technically speaking, bullish continuation would require a clear break above the $65.00–64.80 resistance zone, exposing the $66.00 handle next, with the potential to extend toward $68.00 if momentum increases. On the downside, if the 21-day SMA is not maintained, there may be fresh selling pressure that pushes prices back toward $61.50. A collapse would reveal psychological support at $60.00. Early indications of improvement can be seen in momentum signals. Indicating growing bullish momentum, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently trending upward after rising back above the neutral 50 mark. Although it is not yet strong enough to establish a significant trend shift, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned slightly positive, indicating early indications of bullish momentum. Crude Oil Oil prices dropped off resistance after the Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The move was widely expected and had already been factored in by the markets. Weak labor market signs caused traders to worry about demand when they switched their focus to economic data. Although there was some support from key technical levels, supply problems did not cause prices to rise much. The current geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine have made the oil market even more unstable. Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries and pipeline issues in Kazakhstan and Nigeria have raised concerns. However, growing U.S. distillate inventories and worries over oversupply toward year-end have held back the optimistic trend. Below the 50-day SMA, the price of WTI crude oil is consolidating at the edge of an upward channel on the daily chart. Uncertainty is reflected in this consolidation, which suggests that a break below $60 would set off negative momentum. However, a 200-day SMA break above $67 would keep the market moving in a positive direction and drive prices closer to the $75 mark. WTI crude oil's 4-hour chart displays a price consolidation between $61.60 and $65.50. The outlook is still pessimistic as long as the price stays below $70. A decline in oil prices below the $61.60 to $60 range would strengthen the bearish trend. Brent crude oil is maintaining below $68, while WTI crude oil is consolidating below the $65 mark. The market is under selling pressure as a result of this consolidation, which implies price uncertainty. Should oil prices not rise in the upcoming days, a decline below important support levels would lead to fresh adverse sentiment.