FX.co ★ USD/CAD

USDCAD Technical Analysis of the USDCAD Market Trend and Trade Setup The USD/CAD pair has surged to fresh six-month highs near 1.4040, driven by a stronger US dollar as markets dial back expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts ahead of Chair Powells speech, while the Canadian dollar faces pressure from softer oil prices and trade uncertainties with the US. This movement highlights broader North American economic divergences, potentially raising import costs for Canada and boosting US exporters. H-1 Time Frame On the 1-hour chart, a bullish Change of Character (CHOCH) emerges as the pair shatters the pivotal resistance at 1.4000 with strong green candles, now hovering at 1.4042—a 0.03% gain. Solid support anchors at 1.3995, where prior lows held firm, while overhead resistance caps gains near 1.4050, tested by recent wicks. Rising volume bars confirm buyer momentum, hinting at a dip-buy setup if pullbacks stay above support, though a CHOCH reversal below 1.4000 could signal caution in this volatile session.

M-15 Time Frame On the 15-minute chart, a clear bullish Change of Character (COCH) unfolds as the pair smashes through the key resistance at 1.4020 with a series of strong green candles, flipping prior highs into new support around 1.4000, where earlier lows bounced firmly. The price now tests 1.4041, up 0.03%, with rising volume spikes underscoring buyer control amid a sharp rebound from the 1.3980 trough. Overhead, fresh resistance looms at 1.4050, marked by recent wick rejections, while the 1.4000 level holds as a critical support floor, reinforced by horizontal lines and prior consolidation.

Trade setup: consider a long position on dips to 1.4010-1.4020 for a buy-the-dip play, targeting 1.4050 with a stop-loss below 1.3995 to guard against a COCH reversal if Powell signals dovish policy; risk-reward favors upside in this momentum-driven session.