From a macroeconomic and geopolitical perspective, the easing of global trade tensions has recently provided support to crude oil prices after U.S. officials expressed a willingness to negotiate constructively with China rather than escalate the tariff dispute. Sentiment improved further after U.S. President Donald Trump hinted at a possible diplomatic approach toward Beijing, creating temporary optimism for risk assets, including energy commodities. However, geopolitical uncertainty remains due to rising tensions between Ukraine and Russia, especially after the mention of potential missile support, which has put a risk premium in crude oil prices, although the recent prisoner swap in the Middle East has somewhat alleviated regional escalation pressures, which has somewhat weakened the risk premium. In addition, OPEC+ reiterated its stance on controlling output, indicating that supply constraints may begin to tighten in 2026, supporting the long-term lower limit of energy valuations. However, despite these supportive statements, investor sentiment remains cautious as demand-side concerns related to slowing global growth remain. This has created a push-pull dynamic, with geopolitical risks providing intermittent bullish triggers, but broader macroeconomic caution tempering the ongoing rally.
From the technical perspective, Crude oil is currently trading around $59.65 per barrel, with price action still facing pressure below the 50-period moving average and 200-period moving average, reinforcing a broad bearish market structure despite short-term intraday attempts to stabilize. On the H4 time frame, the price has been trying to consolidate but faces a clear resistance band between $61.50 and $62.30, where previous price rejection occurred. The closer intermediate barrier is located at $60.80-$61.00, which marks the most recent rejection area and is consistent with a smaller intraday liquidity trap. If buyers manage to break out of this pocket, a second barrier could emerge near $62.20, in line with the bearish slope of the 50 SMA, which points downwards and acts as a dynamic cap for price momentum. Until the area is convincingly reclaimed, bullish attempts are likely to be limited and corrective in nature rather than trend-establishing. Turning to the first half chart, lower volume resistance emerged between $60.20 and $60.50, creating a smaller supply block that short-term sellers have been aggressively defensive. On this time frame, $60.80 remains a tactical resistance level, marking the confluence between round sentiment and the near-term rejection wick. On the downside, H4 support lies at $59.20-$58.70, an area that has cushioned intraday losses multiple times. A deeper support area emerges near $58.00, a breach of which could attract stronger selling pressure as bearish momentum could accelerate below this psychological threshold. In the first half structure, immediate support lies at $59.40-$59.20, with a break above $59.00 potentially opening the door for prices to move into $58.80-$58.50, trapping any aggressive buyers who enter too early. Given that the price is currently well below the 50 SMA and 200 SMA, these moving averages no longer serve as support but instead act as overhead barriers that sellers are aggressively defending. This setup means that only a decisive recovery of the area above $60.50, followed by sustained trade above $61.00, will weaken bearish control.
