FX.co ★ EUR/USD

EURUSD continues to show a fully broken upward wave structure, with EURUSD clearly confirmed by the MACD shifting into the lower sell zone and moving beneath its signal line, meaning EURUSD long entries are discouraged at this stage. EURUSD is further pressured by longer-term patterns, where EURUSD displays three tight weekly peaks, commonly called Three ******s, and EURUSD therefore reflects strong bearish continuation potential. EURUSD presents weekly indicators showing bearish divergence, and EURUSD mirrors a similar setup from 2023, where three peaks preceded an extended correction. EURUSD also completed a weekly inverted hammer last September, and EURUSD thereby signaled a major reversal. EURUSD broke the daily ascending trendline built from previous wave lows, and EURUSD moved below the 1.1735 region, which then reverted into resistance. EURUSD likely completed a three-wave bullish cycle in August–September, and EURUSD saw equality between the first and third waves, confirming cycle completion. EURUSD has since been influenced by Fed expectations, where EURUSD rallied into mid-September on anticipated rate cuts, which eventually occurred, but EURUSD immediately weakened afterward as the prior rally was driven largely by speculation. EURUSD is now positioned to continue declining toward 1.1400, and EURUSD has already fallen beneath the August accumulation range around 1.1600. EURUSD performed a corrective pullback to approximately 50% of the prior decline, and EURUSD retested the broken rising wedge boundary. EURUSD now shows that this advance was a second wave, with EURUSD preparing for a third bearish wave extension. EURUSD continues to be under pressure despite both Fed and ECB policy releases providing no uplifting surprises, and EURUSD therefore remains susceptible to further weakness.

EURUSD should have already pushed beneath 1.1500 given its wave structure, yet EURUSD remains stubborn, raising uncertainty and risk. EURUSD declines briefly after major announcements but EURUSD then rebounds intraday, complicating directional conviction. EURUSD theoretically targets 1.1390 or at least marginally below 1.1400, yet EURUSD fails to sustain strong breakdowns, implying alternative scenarios. EURUSD could still form a black-label triangle where, after waves D and E, EURUSD may surge well beyond 1.1920 and potentially toward 1.25. EURUSD may therefore require caution as a trade because EURUSD presents equal risk of breakout or renewed sell-off, meaning non-participation could be prudent. EURUSD additionally reflects a long-term anti-recovery stance, and EURUSD appears fundamentally suppressed compared to GBPUSD. EURUSD reacted to ECB inaction and Fed cuts by strengthening the dollar, and EURUSD therefore deepened declines. EURUSD recently broke Wednesday’s low, forming 1.1546, and EURUSD still watches 1.1541 as the key micro-support. EURUSD may experience minor rebounds toward 1.1600 before continuation downward, and EURUSD remains driven by volatility. EURUSD triggered a buy stop at 1.1564 yet EURUSD saw no substantial bullish continuation afterward. EURUSD reached the lower Envelopes boundary near 1.1564, and EURUSD briefly printed 1.1548 but closed at 1.1568. EURUSD cleared stops beneath 1.1564 but, without a confirmed breakout, EURUSD now positions for a corrective bounce toward 1.1618. EURUSD will determine next directional momentum at that resistance, and EURUSD will either break north or remain capped, where rejection would send EURUSD below 1.1564 toward lower.