Technical analysis 31 October 2025 GBP/USD H-1 
Overall Market Sentiment: Firmly Bearish The bearish momentum has intensified. Yesterdays consolidation (which we discussed on Oct 30) resolved to the downside, breaking below the 1.3200 level and establishing a new, lower trading range. The price is now in another tight consolidation, indicating a pause before a potential next move.
1. Analysis from Your H1 Chart (The Current State) Your new chart clearly shows the follow-through from yesterdays bearish setup:
* Price Action: The pair has fallen to a new low and is now hovering in a very tight range around 1.3154. The market is coiling again, much like it was yesterday, but at a significantly lower level. *
Failed Rallies: The small upward ticks seen on Oct 30 failed to gain any traction, confirming that sellers are in firm control and are selling into any minor strength.
* Indicator: RSI (14) * The RSI is at 42.10. This remains below the 50 line, reinforcing the bearish momentum. *
Like yesterday, it is not yet in "oversold" territory (below 30), which suggests that there is still room for the price to fall further.
* Indicator: MACD (12, 26, 9) * The MACD line is still below the zero line, which is a clear sign of an established bearish trend. * The histogram is flat, and the MACD line is moving sideways, which perfectly reflects the tight price consolidation seen on the chart. It shows a temporary pause in momentum, not a reversal.
2. Fundamental Drivers & Market Context * What Happened Yesterday (Oct 30): The drop you see on your chart was driven by a "double whammy":
* Strong US Dollar: The US Federal Reserves "hawkish rate cut" on Wednesday continued to fuel USD strength. *
Weak UK Pound: Ongoing concerns about the UKs "fiscal hole" and a slowing economy are increasing bets that the Bank of England (BoE) will have to cut interest rates in December. This divergence in monetary policy (a reluctant Fed vs. a potentially eager BoE) is heavily weighing on the GBP/USD. *
What is Happening Today (Oct 31): HIGH-IMPACT NEWS DAY * The market is currently in a tight holding pattern because it is awaiting the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, the most important economic release of the month. * This report will be released later today and will almost certainly cause a major spike in volatility, breaking the pair out of its current 1.3150 range.
3. Key Levels & Outlook for Today (October 31) The battle lines are now drawn at a lower level. * Immediate Resistance: 1.3180 - 1.3200 * This is the new "ceiling." The area around 1.3200, which was yesterdays floor, has now become strong resistance. Any rally is likely to fail at this level.
* Pivot / Current Range: ~1.3150 * The price is pinned to this level as it awaits the NFP data. •
Immediate Support: 1.3130 (then 1.3100) * The immediate low from the spikes on Oct 30 is around 1.3130. A break below this level would open the door for a test of the major psychological level at 1.3100.
> Todays Trade Outlook: > The setup is strongly bearish, but do not be caught in the quiet before the storm. The NFP report will be the catalyst. > * A stronger-than-expected US jobs report would likely send the US Dollar higher, breaking GBP/USD below the 1.3130 support and targeting 1.3100. > * A weaker-than-expected report could cause a short-squeeze rally, but it would likely face significant selling pressure at the 1.3180 - 1.3200 resistance zone. Would you like me to find the specific forecasts for todays Non-Farm Payrolls report so you know what numbers to watch for?
