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Trader Journals:::2025-10-31T06:45:17

AUD/USD

Technical analysis 31 October 2025 AUD/USD H-1

AUD/USD

1. Trend and Price Action: * Short-term Trend Reversal: The pair has moved from a strong uptrend (October 24-29) to a decisive downward correction/bearish trend since rising around 0.6610. * Current Price: The price is consolidating slightly below the key support level, hovering around 0.6545. * Key Level Breakdown: The key support at 0.6580 (which was heavily tested yesterday, October 30) has been decisively broken, confirming the bearish takeover. 2. Support and Resistance (S&R): * Immediate Resistance (now broken support): The zone around $0.6550 - 0.6560 (marked by purple lines) is now acting as immediate resistance. Price tried to reclaim this area but was rejected. * Immediate Support: Price seems to have found temporary support near 0.6530, which is the low of the current move. A break below this level would open the door for a much deeper decline. * Next Major Support: Look further to the left on the chart; the next major support is likely to be around $0.6490 - 0.6500, from late October. 3. Momentum Indicators: * RSI (14): * RSI is at 34.91, near the oversold boundary (30). * While the trend is down, this proximity to 30 suggests that the downside is increasing and that a short-term bounce or consolidation period is imminent. MACD (12, 26, 9): * Strong Bearish Momentum: The MACD histogram is negative and deep, indicating strong recent selling pressure. *Potential Reversal Signal: However, the histogram bars are becoming less negative (moving towards the zero line), and the MACD line (not clearly visible but inferred from the histogram) appears to be turning towards its signal line (red line). This minor change suggests that the strong bearish momentum near the 0.6530 support is ending/expiring. ???? Summary and Outlook AUD/USD is now in a confirmed short-term bearish phase after failing to sustain the rally above 0.6600. The price is currently testing a minor support zone and is showing signs that the immediate selling pressure is starting to subside. * Bearish continuation: The overall structure remains bearish. If the price breaks decisively below the 0.6530 support, it will confirm the continuation of the correction towards 0.6500 and possibly a lower low. * Bullish/corrective bounce: If the price manages to hold above 0.6530 and breaks back above the 0.6560 resistance, it will indicate a substantial correction or reversal of the recent sell-off, possibly targeting 0.6580. Immediate action suggests that a consolidation or minor bounce is likely before the next major move, with the RSI close to oversold and the MACD slowing down. Would you like me to analyze a higher timeframe (e.g., daily or 4 hours) to see the medium-term outlook for AUD/USD?
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