NZD/USD Showing Early Signs of a Potential Reversal but Confirmation Still Needed The NZD/USD pair has been trading in a persistent downtrend on the H4 timeframe for several weeks, with price consistently remaining below both the 100-period and 200-period moving averages. This structure continues to reflect a dominant bearish sentiment in the medium term. However, the recent price action suggests that the pair may be entering a short-term recovery phase as buyers attempt to defend a key horizontal support zone around 0.5630–0.5650. This support level has been tested multiple times, and each retest has attracted buying interest. Currently, price is pushing upward toward the 0.5680–0.5700 area, which aligns closely with the horizontal resistance marked on the chart. This zone is important because it represents a previous breakdown level, and how the market reacts here will help define the next directional move.
Although the bullish momentum is still weak, the formation of higher lows on lower timeframes shows that sellers may be losing some pressure. A strong breakout and H4 candle close above the 0.5700 resistance would be the first meaningful signal of a short-term trend reversal. In that case, the next upside target could be the 100-period moving average, followed by the 200-period moving average, both of which remain sloping downward but could act as dynamic resistance levels. On the other hand, if price fails to break above this resistance zone and gets rejected, the bearish trend may resume, bringing the pair back toward the 0.5630 support. A breakdown below this level would expose further downside potential and reinforce the overall downtrend. At the moment, the market is at a decision point. Traders should wait for clear confirmation rather than anticipating a breakout. The pair’s next move will likely depend on how it behaves around the 0.5700 zone, making this level crucial for both buyers and sellers.
