FX.co ★ EUR/USD

EUR/USD H4 Timeframe: EUR/USD's movement on the H4 timeframe shows a price recovery after a significant decline since late October. Currently, the price is hovering around 1.1640 and has successfully broken through the 100-day moving average (blue), an early technical signal that short-term momentum is shifting bullish. However, the 200-day moving average (red) remains above the price and serves as a key dynamic resistance level to watch before confirming a larger trend reversal. From the price structure, we see that the strong support area at 1.1528 was a key turning point, where buyers entered aggressively and drove the price higher in recent days. This rebound not only broke through several minor resistance levels but also formed the first higher low after a long downtrend. This indicates that, at the very least, the market is in an upward correction phase. Currently, the market focus is on the 1.1665 resistance area. This level is a key supply zone that previously triggered a decline in mid- and late October. If the price breaks through and closes the H4 candle above this area, the bullish momentum will strengthen, supported by price momentum already above the 100-day moving average (MA). A valid breakout above 1.1665 could potentially lead EUR/USD towards the next resistance at 1.1725 and then 1.1819.

However, the main challenge remains the 200-day moving average (MA), which is still descending and relatively close to the current price. As long as the price cannot firmly break through the 200-day moving average (MA), the major trend remains under bearish pressure. The 200-day moving average (MA) will serve as dynamic resistance, potentially holding back gains if buyer momentum begins to weaken. If a rejection scenario occurs at 1.1665 or around the 200-day moving average (MA), a short-term bearish correction is highly likely. The first support zone is located at 1.1600, followed by the 100-day moving average (MA) in the 1.1570–1.1580 range. If these two levels are breached again, selling pressure could send the price down towards the 1.1528 area, which serves as major support. Overall, EUR/USD is currently in a bullish correction phase, but has yet to break through the major trend structure. Traders can consider two scenarios: buy if a breakout occurs above 1.1665, or sell if a valid rejection occurs at resistance or the 200-day moving average. Therefore, price action confirmation remains key to avoiding false signals.