Gold Timeframe H4: Gold price movement on the H4 timeframe is currently showing a consolidation phase after a sharp decline from the previous peak area around 4317–4320. After reaching this area, selling pressure dominated, sending the price down to approach the key support structure around 3988–3990. From there, the price began to form a gradual recovery, but its strength has not yet been fully solidified, and the market is still moving in a clearly visible sideways pattern. The two moving average indicators displayed on the chart, the 100-day moving average (MA) (blue) and the 200-day moving average (MA) (red), provide significant insight into the market's directional bias. Currently, the price is hovering around the 100-day moving average (MA), while the 200-day moving average (MA) is lower, forming a dynamic support base. The fact that the price is consolidating between these two MAs indicates that the market is in a decision zone. The slightly sloping 100-day moving average (MA) suggests weakening medium-term bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the 200-day moving average (MA) remains in a stable upward position, indicating that the long-term bullish structure has not yet been completely broken. As long as the price remains above the 200-day moving average (MA), the potential for an upward reversal remains open.
Horizontally, support and resistance levels also play a significant role. The nearest resistance area is at 4111–4120, which currently acts as a barrier to further price gains. The price has attempted to break through this area several times, but reacted weakly and immediately fell back down, indicating substantial supply. Conversely, a strong support area is located at 4045–4050, which currently serves as a short-term floor. If this support is breached, bearish pressure could push the price back towards 3988–3990, a major support area and a potential point for buyers to re-enter the market. In terms of price action, the candlestick structure in the last few sessions shows a narrow range with long upper wicks, reflecting continued selling pressure. However, small-bodied candlesticks indicate uncertainty and a wait for a new catalyst. The preliminary conclusion is that GOLD is in a consolidation phase with a neutral bias, likely bearish, as long as the price fails to break through the 4111 resistance level. A break above this level could potentially trigger a rally towards 4240. However, if the price falls below the 100-day moving average (MA) and breaks through the 4045 support level, downward pressure could push the price lower, approaching the 3990 level. Therefore, traders need to pay attention to price reactions in two key zones: 4111 as resistance and 4045 as support. The direction of the breakout from these areas will likely determine the price's next position.
