GOLD H4 Timeframe: The current price movement of GOLD on the H4 timeframe shows a fairly clear consolidation phase after previously declining from the swing high around 4246.63. The price structure formed over the past few days shows a sideways trend between two important boundaries: minor resistance at 4126.46 and dynamic support around the moving averages, specifically the 200-day moving average (MA200) (red line). This condition indicates that the market is entering a period of waiting for new catalysts, both fundamental and technical, to provide a more decisive direction. A closer look reveals that the 100-day moving average (MA100) (blue line) is currently slightly above the price movement, while the 200-day moving average (MA200) is directly below it. This configuration indicates that the intermediate trend structure remains bearish, given that the price has not been able to consistently move above the 100-day moving average. However, at the same time, the 200-day moving average acts as a fairly strong barrier against declines. The repeated price bounces around the 200-day moving average indicate that buyers are still trying to maintain this area as key support.
The closest horizontal support level is at 3963.33 – 3984.74, which was a key area before the strong rebound occurred in early November. As long as the price remains above this support, the opportunity for further strengthening towards the resistance level of 4126.46 remains open. Conversely, a valid break below the 200-day moving average (MA) and the support area of 4005.55 could signal increasing selling pressure, and a deeper correction towards 3963.33 becomes a realistic scenario. On the other hand, to resume the medium-term bullish trend, the price needs to convincingly break through the major resistance level of 4126.46. A breakout at this level has the potential to bring the price back to test the 4246.63 area, or even to the major resistance level of 4380.52 if buying momentum strengthens. However, as long as the price remains below the 100-day moving average (MA), buyer dominance cannot be considered solid. Given the current consolidation, traders should be wary of false breakouts, especially as volatility in this zone tends to decrease. A strategy to consider is to wait for confirmation of a four-hour candle closing above 4126.46 for a bullish scenario, or below 4005.55 for a bearish scenario. Until a clear breakout occurs, gold is expected to continue moving sideways within a relatively narrow range.
