Trading instrument GOLD - D1 period chart. Gold continues to be in an upward trend, the wave structure is forming its sequence upwards, the MACD indicator is rising in the overbought zone and above its signal line. It is possible that the price is preparing to update its historical maximum, but there is also a second scenario. This recent rise after the correction could be the second wave before the third one downwards. Nevertheless, after such a prolonged upward movement, it would make sense to form a corrective structure of three waves, even if the upward trend continues later on. Buying at the current prices doesn't make sense, a support for growth is needed. This support is found lower, at the horizontal support level of 4041. There, after switching to a lower timeframe, one could consider entering long when a corresponding bullish formation appears. The same mirror level, for example on the hourly or four-hour chart, to see resistance turn into support. This way, a signal on the lower timeframe at the support level will confirm the higher level, which always increases the probability of a positive outcome. Indirectly pointing to a decline towards this support is the CCI indicator, which is turning downwards from the overbought zone. If the 4041 level does not hold and is broken downwards, this circumstance will increase the likelihood of a decline in the presumed third wave. Moreover, the previous monthly candle closed in a manner typical for a decline, with a hammer or, in other words, a pin bar. Until a certain point, this fact didn't help much as the price rose. However, eventually, it did fall to the previously identified target, the daily support level, and now a battle will unfold here. In reality, one must act, not speculate; considering selling will only be an option if the price successfully consolidates below this level, at least on the H4 timeframe. For now, a rebound upwards is quite likely, although the probability has decreased since there was already a rebound at the end of last week. It's a tricky situation, unclear what the price wants, whether to break the level or move upwards from it. Some movement upwards has occurred, but will there be enough strength for further development? Currently, it's evident that the rebound upwards from the level is quickly neutralized, and we are stuck again, unclear about the next move, then a bit more upwards. It seems that the price has been squeezed into a triangle; if there are no positions, I wouldn't get involved in this pair for now.
