FX.co ★ EUR/USD

EUR/USD H4 Timeframe: The EUR/USD movement on the H4 timeframe shows quite complex dynamics, with the price still moving in a sideways structure, but with bearish pressure remaining dominant overall. Currently, the price is around 1.1583, moving directly between two major moving averages: the 100-day moving average (MA100) (blue line) and the 200-day moving average (MA200) (red line). This condition indicates that the market is in a transition phase, with buyers and sellers both trying to control the short-term direction. Structurally, the major trend since early October has remained downtrend. This is evident from the consistent series of lower highs and lower lows. Each time the price pulls back, the 200-day MA continues to act as dynamic resistance, preventing further gains. Despite several small breakouts above the 100-day MA, buyers have not been able to achieve a solid breakout that would shift the medium-term bias to bullish. The horizontal levels on the chart provide a clearer picture of the key areas being tested by the market. The nearest resistance is at 1.1603—a zone that has repeatedly served as the upper limit of consolidation. If the price breaks through and holds above this level, there is an opportunity to continue rising towards the next resistance at 1.1729. However, such a breakout requires a strong impulsive candle to be valid. As long as the price remains below the 200-day moving average (MA), which is currently located near this level, the upside scenario remains limited.

On the downside, key support lies in the 1.1523 area, which also served as a strong reaction point in mid-November before a rebound occurred. If the price falls again to test this area, a double bottom could form, provided buyers maintain momentum. However, if this area is broken, the 1.1469 level becomes the next target, opening the possibility of a continuation of the bearish trend. The 100-day moving average (MA) is showing a flattening slope, indicating a short-term bearish weakening, while the 200-day moving average (MA) remains down, indicating that the underlying trend has not changed. Therefore, EUR/USD is currently on the verge of a change but has not yet shown clear confirmation. Overall, the pair remains in a consolidation phase with a dominant bearish trend. However, upside correction potential remains open as long as the price remains above the 100-day moving average (MA) and does not break through the 1.1523 support level. Buyers need a breakout above the 200-day moving average (MA) to open up the opportunity for a stronger reversal.