FX.co ★ NZD/USD

NZD/USD H4 Timeframe: The NZD/USD movement on the H4 timeframe shows a significant price recovery after entering a prolonged bearish phase since early October. The price is currently around 0.5707, just below the 0.5727 resistance area. After briefly touching a low around 0.5608, the pair staged a strong rebound driven by sudden buyer pressure in late November. This surge brought the price back near the 200-day moving average (MA) (red line), which had previously consistently served as key dynamic resistance during the downtrend. The 100-day moving average (MA) remains below the price and is beginning to curve upward, indicating that short-term bullish momentum is beginning to form. However, the 200-day moving average (MA) is still moving downward, indicating that the underlying trend remains bearish. With the price positioned between the shifting short-term dynamics and the primary medium-term trend, the market is in the process of determining its next direction. The 0.5727 resistance area is a key zone to watch. This level not only served as a previous horizontal boundary but also overlaps with the area around the 200-day moving average (MA). If the price breaks through this resistance with a strong bullish candle and holds above it, it will open the opportunity to continue rising towards the next resistance at 0.5797. This breakthrough will strengthen the argument for a medium-term trend change from bearish to neutral or even bullish.

However, if the 0.5727 resistance level fails to break through, the market could potentially experience renewed selling pressure. Strong rejection in this area could push the price back down to test minor support at 0.5665, adjacent to the 100-day moving average (MA). If this area is broken, the correction could extend to strong support at 0.5608. A decline below this level would confirm that the bearish structure remains dominant and render the previous rebound scenario merely a technical retracement. The movement of the last candlestick indicates the emergence of mild selling pressure at the peak of the uptrend, but it is not strong enough to drastically change direction. As long as the price remains above the 100-day moving average (MA), the short-term bias remains bullish. However, the dominance of the major trend must still be respected: the 200-day moving average (MA) is still falling, meaning buyers need additional momentum to validate the trend change. Overall, the NZD/USD H4 chart is in a critical area between consolidation and a potential reversal. A breakout above 0.5727 is crucial to open further upside, while failure there could send the price back on a bearish path.