FX.co ★ XAU/USD, GOLD

I am observing that the market is currently going through a clear accumulation phase, and I am focusing on how this consolidation is shaping expectations for the next surge in GOLD on the H1 timeframe, because I see that traders are essentially guessing the next direction while several overlapping triangles make the structure appear both compressed and deceptive. I am noting that, despite this ambiguity, I am still leaning toward a movement to the north, because I believe the price action aligns with the prevailing trend, and I am confident that the broader geopolitical context—although many expect stabilization—is still fragile enough for gold to remain a preferred safe-haven asset. I am also considering the increasing probability of a Fed rate cut at the December meeting, which I am seeing rise toward 71%, and I know this fuels additional bullish pressure on precious metals. I am emphasizing the ascending channel I have drawn on the chart, and I am using the Fibonacci grid stretched across the European-session impulse from 4022.03 to 4100.76, where I am observing that once European traders exited, I saw a textbook correction form, and I am interpreting that correction as contained within the 50% retracement zone. I am evaluating how the American session did not offer a decisive direction but instead pushed the price down toward the existing buy zone, where I am recognizing two consecutive false breakouts of the support around 4062.50. I am acknowledging that this level coincides with Murray 4/8, which I am interpreting as a clear signal supporting long positions, and I am targeting a breakout through 4101.56 because I believe the next bullish wave can extend toward 4140.62. I am also marking the 161.8% Fibonacci expansion level at 4148 as my ultimate target for the current structure, and I am confident that if the market sustains the ascending channel, I will see bullish continuation materialize exactly within this projected zone.

I am observing the GOLD market this afternoon and I am noting that the overall structure on the H1 timeframe continues to support the bullish rally, even though I clearly see attempts by sellers to push the price back below the intermediate range of 4064, and I am emphasizing that these attempts have been unsuccessful because buyers have confidently defended their positions. I am paying attention to how the price is currently hovering near 4050, and I am defining my potential entry point for a continuation of the upward trend as the moment when the price returns to the previously broken level of 4052, which I consider to be an important technical benchmark for triggering renewed bullish pressure. I am setting the first activation zone for the scenario at the decline point of 4035, and I am planning to place my stop-loss behind the 4041 resistance or at the nearest reasonable rounding of that price, because I am prioritizing both risk control and structural clarity in the event the market attempts another downward probe. I am fully prepared that, if the price moves against me and consolidates below this range, I will abandon the long scenario and I will immediately begin forming a new trading plan aimed at selling. I am mapping out the target for this alternative scenario as the buyer zone located near 4004, and I am aware that this area has historically served as a strong reaction zone, so I will evaluate whether to enter new short positions upon reaching that support or whether I should instead anticipate a rebound and prepare for a fresh long entry from that point. I am therefore maintaining flexibility in my trading decisions, and I am ensuring that every step I take is grounded in clear structural signals, disciplined stop placement, and a willingness to adapt to the evolving market environment.